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Analysts' dividend forecasts, portfolio selection, and market risk premia

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  • Breuer, Wolfgang
  • Feilke, Franziska
  • Gürtler, Marc

Abstract

The most relevant practical impediment to an application of the Markowitz portfolio selection approach is the problem of estimating return moments, in particular return expectations. We analyze the consequences of using return estimates implied by analysts' dividend forecasts under the explicit notion of taxes and non-flat term structures of interest rates and achieve quite good performance results. As a by-product, these results cast some doubt upon the adequacy of estimating market risk premia with implied returns, because estimation techniques with good performance results are hardly suited to describe market expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Breuer, Wolfgang & Feilke, Franziska & Gürtler, Marc, 2007. "Analysts' dividend forecasts, portfolio selection, and market risk premia," Working Papers FW25V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tbsifw:fw25v2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    analysts' forecasts; CAPM; implied returns; market risk premium; portfolio optimization; return estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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