IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/fmktpm/v19y2005i3p261-275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Active Portfolio Management, Implied Expected Returns, and Analyst Optimism

Author

Listed:
  • Olaf Stotz

Abstract

This paper investigates whether implied expected returns based on the approach of CLAUS/THOMAS (2001) can be implemented in active portfolio management. This approach uses analysts' forecasts to derive return expectations by equating the present value of expected cash-flows to the current market price. It is found that active investment strategies which maximize implied expected returns significantly outperform a passive index investment. A significant part of this outperformance can be explained by the difference between the implied expected return and the return expectation justified by the CAPM. The empirical results suggest that a substantial part of this difference can be attributed to an optimism bias in analysts' forecasts. Copyright Swiss Society for Financial Market Research 2005

Suggested Citation

  • Olaf Stotz, 2005. "Active Portfolio Management, Implied Expected Returns, and Analyst Optimism," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 261-275, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:19:y:2005:i:3:p:261-275
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-005-4694-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11408-005-4694-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11408-005-4694-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-273, April.
    4. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    5. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    6. Michaely, Roni & Womack, Kent L, 1999. "Conflict of Interest and the Credibility of Underwriter Analyst Recommendations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 653-686.
    7. Peter Easton & Gary Taylor & Pervin Shroff & Theodore Sougiannis, 2002. "Using Forecasts of Earnings to Simultaneously Estimate Growth and the Rate of Return on Equity Investment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 657-676, June.
    8. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    9. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    10. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
    11. John C. Easterwood & Stacey R. Nutt, 1999. "Inefficiency in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Systematic Misreaction or Systematic Optimism?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1777-1797, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Kerl & Oscar Stolper & Andreas Walter, 2012. "Tagging the triggers: an empirical analysis of information events prompting sell-side analyst reports," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(2), pages 217-246, June.
    2. Breuer, Wolfgang & Feilke, Franziska & Gürtler, Marc, 2007. "Analysts' dividend forecasts, portfolio selection, and market risk premia," Working Papers FW25V2, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    3. Florian Esterer & David Schröder, 2014. "Implied cost of capital investment strategies: evidence from international stock markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-195, May.
    4. Stefan Kanne & Jan Klobucnik & Daniel Kreutzmann & Soenke Sievers, 2012. "To buy or not to buy? The value of contradictory analyst signals," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(4), pages 405-428, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    2. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    3. Schröder, David & Esterer, Florian, 2012. "A new measure of equity duration: The duration-based explanation of the value premium revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Kong, Dongmin & Lin, Zhiyang & Wang, Yanan & Xiang, Junyi, 2021. "Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Huang, Lixin & Li, Wei & Wang, Hong & Wu, Liansheng, 2022. "Stock dividend and analyst optimistic bias in earnings forecast," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 643-659.
    6. Jin, Han & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang & Xu, Bin, 2023. "Can star analysts make superior coverage decisions in poor information environment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Régis BRETON & Sébastien GALANTI & Christophe HURLIN & Anne-Gaël VAUBOURG, 2011. "Does the firm-analyst relationship matter in explaining analysts' earnings forecast errors?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 469, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    8. Chongsoo An & John J. Cheh & Il-woon Kim, 2017. "Do Value Stocks Outperform Growth Stocks in the U.S. Stock Market?," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 7(2), pages 1-7.
    9. Carole Gresse & Laurence Porteu de la Morandière, 2015. "Rising and Senior Stars in European Financial Analyst Rankings: The Talented and the Famous," Working Papers 01, Groupe ESC Pau, Research Department, revised Jan 2015.
    10. Christian Bach, 2011. "Conservatism in Corporate Valuation," CREATES Research Papers 2011-32, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    11. Pengguo Wang, 2018. "Future Realized Return, Firm‐specific Risk and the Implied Expected Return," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 54(1), pages 105-132, March.
    12. Yu, Fang (Frank), 2008. "Analyst coverage and earnings management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 245-271, May.
    13. Wayne Guay & SP Kothari & Susan Shu, 2011. "Properties of implied cost of capital using analysts’ forecasts," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 36(2), pages 125-149, August.
    14. Markus Buxbaum & Wolfgang Schultze & Samuel L. Tiras, 2023. "Do analysts’ target prices stabilize the stock market?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 763-816, October.
    15. Bok Baik & Kyonghee Kim & Richard Morton & Yongoh Roh, 2016. "Analysts’ pre-tax income forecasts and the tax expense anomaly," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 559-595, June.
    16. Bosquet, K. & de Goeij, P. C. & Smedts, K., 2009. "Coexistence and Dynamics of Overconfidence and Strategic Incentives," Discussion Paper 2009-81, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    17. Yonca Ertimur & Jayanthi Sunder & Shyam V. Sunder, 2007. "Measure for Measure: The Relation between Forecast Accuracy and Recommendation Profitability of Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(3), pages 567-606, June.
    18. David DeBoskey & Peter Gillett, 2013. "The impact of multi-dimensional corporate transparency on us firms’ credit ratings and cost of capital," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 101-134, January.
    19. Teresa Chu & In-Mu Haw & Bryan Lee & Woody Wu, 2014. "Cost of equity capital, control divergence, and institutions: the international evidence," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 483-527, October.
    20. Hu, Ning & Xu, Jiayi & Xue, Shuang, 2022. "Mandatory disclosure of comment letters and analysts' forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:19:y:2005:i:3:p:261-275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.