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Are the profitability and investment factors valid ICAPM risk factors? Pre-1963 evidence

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  • Lin, Qi
  • Lin, Xi

Abstract

We empirically evaluate whether the profitability and investment factors from Novy-Marx (2013) and Fama and French (2015, 2018) are compatible with Merton’s (1973) intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) framework in the pre-1963 period. We show that: (i) the covariance risk price estimates of the profitability factors are positive and statistically significant, which indicates that they have explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of stock returns; (ii) the investment factors carry insignificant covariance risk prices and are therefore not valid ICAPM risk factors; and (iii) the profitability factors forecast the first moment of the aggregate stock return and economic activity with the correct sign, which is consistent with their positive covariance risk price estimates and satisfies the sign restrictions associated with the ICAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Qi & Lin, Xi, 2021. "Are the profitability and investment factors valid ICAPM risk factors? Pre-1963 evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000851
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101460
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Profitability; Investment; Intertemporal CAPM; Covariance risk price; Investment opportunity set;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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