IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/svrwwp/022022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Grimm, Veronika
  • Nöh, Lukas
  • Wieland, Volker

Abstract

This paper assesses the possible development of government interest expenditures as a share of GDP for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, these and other member states could anticipate a further reduction of interest expenditure in the future. This outlook has changed considerably with the recent surge in inflation and government bond rates. Nevertheless, under reasonable assumptions current yield curves still imply that interest expenditure relative to GDP can be stabilized at the current level. We also review the implications of a further upward shift in the yield curves of 1 or 2 percentage points. They suggest significant medium-term risks for highly indebted member states with interest expenditure approaching or exceeding levels last observed on the eve of the euro area debt crisis. In light of these risks, governments of euro area member states should take substantive action to achieve a sustained decline in debt-to-GDP ratios towards safer levels. They bear the responsibility for making sure that government finances can weather the higher interest rates which are required to achieve price stability in the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Grimm, Veronika & Nöh, Lukas & Wieland, Volker, 2022. "Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis," Working Papers 02/2022, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/263240/1/1814794743.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Efficient solution and computation of models with occasionally binding constraints," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    2. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    3. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    4. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2020. "Negative interest rate policy and the yield curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 653-672, September.
    5. Gregor Boehl, 2021. "Efficient Solution and Computation of Models With Occasionally Binding Constraints," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_253, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    7. Veronika Grimm & Lukas Nöh & Volker Wieland, 2023. "Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 286-303, December.
    8. Wieland, Volker, 2021. "The decline in euro area inflation and the choice of policy strategy," IMFS Working Paper Series 159, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    9. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Instability, imprecision and inconsistent use of equilibrium real interest rate estimates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-14.
    10. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Renault, Théodore, 2022. "Risk sharing and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2746, European Central Bank.
    11. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Veronika Grimm & Lukas Nöh & Volker Wieland, 2023. "Government bond rates and interest expenditure of large euro area member states: A scenario analysis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 286-303, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    2. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2021. "Vermögenspreise, Zinseffekte und die Robustheit der öffentlichen Finanzen in Deutschland - eine Szenario-Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 36, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Lars P Feld & Volker Wieland, 2021. "The German Federal Constitutional Court Ruling and the European Central Bank’s Strategy," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 217-253.
    5. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    6. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    7. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    8. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy: Interest Rates and Low Inflation. A Review of Literature and Methods," Bank of Lithuania Occasional Paper Series 13, Bank of Lithuania.
    10. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    12. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    13. Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Estimates of the Natural Rate of Interest and the Stance of Monetary Policies: A Critical Assessment," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-27, February.
    14. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    15. Jens Klose, 2021. "Daily Monetary Policy Rules and the ECB's Medium-Term Orientation," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202129, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    16. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2021. "Safe haven flows, natural interest rates and secular stagnation—Empirical evidence for Euro area countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1164-1190.
    17. Gregor Boehl & Gavin Goy & Felix Strobel, 2024. "A Structural Investigation of Quantitative Easing," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1028-1044, July.
    18. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718.
    19. Alex Ilek & Guy Segal, 2022. "A Simple Theory-Based Estimate of the Real Natural Rate of Interest in Open Economies," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2022.06, Bank of Israel.
    20. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2020. "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:022022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/svrgvde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.