IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2024i3p1-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Marcin Bielecki
  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina
  • Aneta Błażejowska
  • Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak
  • Grzegorz Szafrański

Abstract

We use a wide range of models (time series, semi-structural and structural) to estimate, project and explain the evolution of the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland (PL) and in the euro area (EA). Our findings are as follows: (i) the NRIs declined significantly in both PL and the EA over the last two decades, (ii) our most recent short-term estimates point towards a mildly negative NRI in PL and appreciably more negative NRI in the EA, (iii) our most recent medium-term estimates point towards a mildly positive NRI in PL and a slightly negative NRI in the EA, (iv) the NRI in PL remained consistently above the NRI in the EA by an average of 2–3 pp, (v) the main drivers of the declining NRIs were demographics and the worldwide productivity slowdown, (vi) the main driver of the higher NRI in PL than in the EA was the productivity catch-up in PL, (vii) we expect the NRI in PL to significantly converge to the EA level by the mid-2030s.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Aneta Błażejowska & Kamila Kuziemska-Pawlak & Grzegorz Szafrański, 2024. "Estimates and Projections of the Natural Rate of Interest for Poland and the Euro Area," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2024:i:3:p:1-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gnpje.sgh.waw.pl/pdf-187561-114973
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc P. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2019. "Global trends in interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 248-262.
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    4. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    5. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    7. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2023. "Demographics, Monetary Policy, and the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1857-1887, October.
    8. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    9. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    10. Josef Platzer & Marcel Peruffo, 2022. "Secular Drivers of the Natural Rate of Interest in the United States: A Quantitative Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 2022/030, International Monetary Fund.
    11. James D. Hamilton, 2017. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," NBER Working Papers 23429, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michael T. Kiley, 2020. "The Global Equilibrium Real Interest Rate: Concepts, Estimates, and Challenges," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 305-326, December.
    13. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    14. Michał Brzoza‐Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, April.
    15. Jan Acedański & Julia Włodarczyk, 2018. "Demographics, retirement age, and real interest rates in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 355-385, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Michele Catalano & Emilia Pezzolla, 2022. "Global natural projections," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 949-990, November.
    3. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    5. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2021. "Supply of Sovereign Safe Assets and Global Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1315, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    8. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Mazin, Felipe & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 18616, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Marcin Bielecki & Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa, 2022. "Aging, Migration and Monetary Policy in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 5-30.
    12. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    14. Goto, Eiji, 2023. "International comovement of r∗: A case study of the G7 countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
    16. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    18. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
    19. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    20. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Samer Shousha, 2020. "Scarcity of Safe Assets and Global Neutral Interest Rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1293, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poland; euro area; monetary policy; natural rate of interest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2024:i:3:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.