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Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic

Author

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  • Pikhart Zdeněk

    (University of Economics in Prague, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, W. Churchill Sq.1938/4, 130 67Prague 3 and also Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit, Letenská 15, 118 10Prague 1, Czech Republic)

  • Froňková Pavla

    (Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit, Letenská 15, 118 10Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Article deals with estimating real natural interest rate and exchange rate to construct monetary conditions index suitable for the Czech open economy. Despite unobservable characteristics of underlying interest rates and exchange rate, the importance of reference indicators for monetary policy is crucial. Proposed monetary condition index in gap form examines monetary impulse on economic and credit cycle in inflation targeting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Pikhart Zdeněk & Froňková Pavla, 2019. "Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 231-248, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:19:y:2019:i:4:p:231-248:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/revecp-2019-0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    2. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    3. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    4. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
    5. Tomas Holub & Martin Cihak, 2003. "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us?," Working Papers 2003/08, Czech National Bank.
    6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    7. Martin Èihák & Tomáš Holub, 2003. "Price Convergence: What Can the Balassa-Samuelson Model Tell Us? (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 53(7-8), pages 334-355, July.
    8. Luboš Komárek & Martin Motl, 2012. "Behaviorální a fundamentální rovnovážný měnový kurz české koruny [Behavioural and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(2), pages 147-166.
    9. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    11. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Rate of Interest; Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Monetary Conditions Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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