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Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic

Author

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  • Pikhart Zdeněk

    (University of Economics in Prague, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, W. Churchill Sq.1938/4, 130 67Prague 3 and also Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit, Letenská 15, 118 10Prague 1, Czech Republic)

  • Froňková Pavla

    (Ministry of Finance of the Czech Republic, Department of Economic policy, Macroeconomic Analysis Unit, Letenská 15, 118 10Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Article deals with estimating real natural interest rate and exchange rate to construct monetary conditions index suitable for the Czech open economy. Despite unobservable characteristics of underlying interest rates and exchange rate, the importance of reference indicators for monetary policy is crucial. Proposed monetary condition index in gap form examines monetary impulse on economic and credit cycle in inflation targeting model.

Suggested Citation

  • Pikhart Zdeněk & Froňková Pavla, 2019. "Estimating Natural Rate of Interest and Equilibrium Exchange Rate: A Case of the Czech Republic," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(4), pages 231-248, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:reoecp:v:19:y:2019:i:4:p:231-248:n:1
    DOI: 10.2478/revecp-2019-0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
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    4. Sébastien Fries & Jean‐Stéphane Mésonnier & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2018. "National natural rates of interest and the single monetary policy in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(6), pages 763-779, September.
    5. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
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    7. Lukáš Pfeifer & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2015. "Vliv měnových podmínek na jednotlivé kategorie cen v České Republice v kontextu měnové a makroobezřetnostní politiky [The Effect of Monetary Conditions on Individual Categories of Prices in the Cze," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(8), pages 948-966.
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    9. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner, 2018. "An Exchange Rate Floor as an Instrument of Monetary Policy: An Ex-Post Assessment of the Czech Experience," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(6), pages 537-549, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural Rate of Interest; Equilibrium Exchange Rate; Monetary Conditions Index;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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