IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2010-006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian estimation and model selection in the generalised stochastic unit root model

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Fuyu
  • Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto

Abstract

We develop Bayesian techniques for estimation and model comparison in a novel Generalised Stochastic Unit Root (GSTUR) model. This allows us to investigate the presence of a deterministic time trend in economic series, while allowing the degree of persistence to change over time. In particular the model allows for shifts from stationarity I(0) to nonstationarity I(1) or vice versa. The empirical analysis demonstrates that the GSTUR model provides new insights on the properties of some macroeconomic time series such as stock market indices, inflation and exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Fuyu & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto, 2010. "Bayesian estimation and model selection in the generalised stochastic unit root model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-006, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39321/1/623836033.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geweke, John, 1989. "Bayesian Inference in Econometric Models Using Monte Carlo Integration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1317-1339, November.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    4. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
    5. Koop, Gary & Ley, Eduardo & Osiewalski, Jacek & Steel, Mark F. J., 1997. "Bayesian analysis of long memory and persistence using ARFIMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 149-169.
    6. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    7. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    8. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    9. Kim, Jae-Young & Belaire-Franch, Jorge & Amador, Rosa Badillo, 2002. "Corrigendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series" [J. Econom. 95 (2000) 97-116]," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 389-392, August.
    10. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
    11. Koop, Gary, 1994. "An objective Bayesian analysis of common stochastic trends in international stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 343-364, July.
    12. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    13. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Clavijo-Cortes, 2021. "How persistent is unemployment in major Latin American economies?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 342-360.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    2. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
    3. Hirsch, Tristan & Rinke, Saskia, 2017. "Changes in Persistence in Outlier Contaminated Time Series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-583, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Ahmad, A.H. & Harvey, David I. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2011. "Exchange rate regime verification: An alternative method of testing for regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 96-98, October.
    5. Zsolt Darvas & Balẳ Varga, 2014. "Inflation persistence in central and eastern European countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1437-1448, May.
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsu, Chi-Sheng, 2016. "Threshold, smooth transition and mean reversion in inflation: New evidence from European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 23-36.
    7. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    9. Cerrato, Mario & Kim, Hyunsok & MacDonald, Ronald, 2013. "Equilibrium exchange rate determination and multiple structural changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 52-66.
    10. Dimitris Christopoulos, 2004. "Does Stationarity Characterize Real GDP Movements? Results from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests," Macroeconomics 0406002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long‐range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, May.
    12. Markus Brunnermeier & Simon Rother & Isabel Schnabel & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Asset Price Bubbles and Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(9), pages 4272-4317.
    13. George Kapetanios & Yongcheol Shin & Andy Snell, 2003. "Testing for Cointegration in Nonlinear STAR Error Correction Models," Working Papers 497, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    14. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December.
    15. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    16. Sandberg, Rickard, 2016. "Trends, unit roots, structural changes, and time-varying asymmetries in U.S. macroeconomic data: the Stock and Watson data re-examined," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 699-713.
    17. Florian Heinen & Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Forecasting long memory time series under a break in persistence," CREATES Research Papers 2009-53, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. repec:hit:hitjcm:v:56:y:2015:i:1:p:117-134 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    20. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "A century of purchasing power parity confirmed: The role of nonlinearity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1398-1405, November.
    21. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stochastic Unit Root; MCMC; Bayesian;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.