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Inflation Expectations in the EU: Results from Survey Data

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  • Nielsen, Hannah

Abstract

Inflation expectations are extracted from the Consumer Survey, which is conducted by the European Commission for the European Union. Using the probability method to quantify the qualitative answers different distribution functions and scaling parameters are assumed to cope with the properties of the data properly. The forecasting ability of respective series is assessed also compared to the balance statistic. Furthermore the time horizon of the survey participants while answering the questionnaire is analyzed, because the empirical results show that it might not coincide with the time horizon implied by the formulation of the question.

Suggested Citation

  • Nielsen, Hannah, 2003. "Inflation Expectations in the EU: Results from Survey Data," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,13, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patricks Ogiji & Tersoo Shimonkabir Shitile & Nuruddeen Usman, 2022. "Estimating asymmetries in monetary policy reaction function: an oil price augmented Taylor type rule for Nigeria under unconventional regime," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1655-1672, August.
    2. Tomasz Lyziak, 2010. "Measurement of perceived and expected inflation on the basis of consumer survey data," IFC Working Papers 5, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Petar Sorić, 2013. "Assessing the sensitivity of consumption expenditure to inflation sentiment in post-communist economies," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 529-538, December.
    4. repec:zbw:bofism:2005_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ece Oral, 2016. "Measuring Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey," Eastern European Business and Economics Journal, Eastern European Business and Economics Studies Centre, vol. 2(1), pages 43-74.
    6. Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    7. Snezana Eminidou & Marios Zachariadis & Elena Andreou, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 122(1), pages 306-339, January.
    8. Johanna Posch & Fabio Rumler, 2015. "Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(2), pages 145-162, March.
    9. Eminidou, Snezana & Geiger, Martin & Zachariadis, Marios, 2023. "Public debt and state-dependent effects of fiscal policy in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
    11. Ece Oral, 2013. "Consumer Inflation Expectations in Turkey," IFC Working Papers 10, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Aleksandra Hałka & Tomasz Łyziak, 2013. "How to defi ne the Consumer Perceived Price Index? The case of Poland," NBP Working Papers 160, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    14. Paloviita, Maritta, 2005. "The role of expectations in euro area inflation dynamics," Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, number 2005_032.
    15. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 721, European Central Bank.
    16. Eva M. Köberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2011. "The NIRCU and the Phillips curve: an approach based on micro data," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 673-694, May.
    17. Lena Vogel, 2008. "The Relationship between the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the NAIRU over Time," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200803, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    18. Lena Dr䧥r & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2014. "Perceived inflation under loss aversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 282-293, January.
    19. Yuichiro Ito & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2016. "Effects of Inflation and Wage Expectations on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    20. Aleksandra Halka & Tomasz Lyziak, 2013. "Index of perceived in ation in Poland," EcoMod2013 5595, EcoMod.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation expectations; survey data; quantification methods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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