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The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results

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Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the link between inflation expectations and actual inflation in the New EU Member States (NMS). To achieve this goal, the results of a qualitative consumer survey were transformed into a quantitative measure of inflation expectations using the Carlson-Parkin approach. Afterwards, small-scale VAR models capturing actual inflation and inflation expectations were produced. Both the survey data and the quantified values of inflation expectations confirm that inflation expectations increased substantially prior to the NMS accession to the EU (in the case of Slovenia prior to accession to the EMU), with the expected inflation rate surging notably above the observed price increases. The findings of the VAR models indicate that inflation expectations have a positive impact on actual inflation in almost all the NMS; however, the potential problems of omitted variables and short sample period reduce the significance of this result.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantins Benkovskis, 2008. "The Role of Inflation Expectations in the New EU Member States: Consumer Survey Based Results," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(07-08), pages 298-317, Oktober.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:fauart:v:58:y:2008:i:7-8:p:298-317
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    1. Tomislav Globan & Vladimir Arčabić & Petar Sorić, 2016. "Inflation in New EU Member States: A Domestically or Externally Driven Phenomenon?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 154-168, January.
    2. Péter Gábriel, 2010. "Household inflation expectations and inflation dynamics," MNB Working Papers 2010/12, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Magdalena Szyszko, 2013. "The interdependences of central bank’s forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 44(1), pages 33-66.
    4. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marina Matošec, 2020. "Some properties of inflation expectations in the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(1), pages 176-203, February.
    5. Ivana Lolic & Petar Soric & Mirjana Cizmesija, 2017. "Disentangling the Relationship between News Media and Consumers' Inflation Sentiment: the Case of Croatia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(3), pages 221-249, June.
    6. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    7. Andrejs Bessonovs & Olegs Tkacevs, 2016. "Relationship Between Inflation and Economic Activity and Its Variation Over Time in Latvia," Working Papers 2016/03, Latvijas Banka.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; survey data; VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C42 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Survey Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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