IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb373/199922.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-varying market price of risk in the CAPM: Approaches, empirical evidence and implications

Author

Listed:
  • Hafner, Christian M.
  • Herwartz, Helmut

Abstract

Time-varying risk premia traditionally have been associated with the empirical fact that conditional second moments are time-varying. This paper additionally examines another possible source for time-varying risk premia, namely the market price of risk (lambda). For utility functions that do not imply constant risk aversion measures, the market price of risk will in general change over time. We provide empirical evidence for the German stock market in a bivariate GARCH-M framework using alternative specifications for lambda. The results indicate that a model with lambda being a function of typical volatility measures performs best for most series. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, we plot impulse response functions of the risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafner, Christian M. & Herwartz, Helmut, 1999. "Time-varying market price of risk in the CAPM: Approaches, empirical evidence and implications," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,22, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199922
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/61747/1/72218087X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1996. "Consistency and Asymptotic Normality of the Quasi-maximum Likelihood Estimator in IGARCH(1,1) and Covariance Stationary GARCH(1,1) Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(3), pages 575-596, May.
    3. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
    4. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-1778, December.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    7. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    9. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. "Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
    10. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    11. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    12. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Caporin & Michael McAleer, 2011. "Thresholds, news impact surfaces and dynamic asymmetric multivariate GARCH," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 65(2), pages 125-163, May.
    2. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-009 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Andriyashin, Anton & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Timofeev, Roman, 2008. "Recursive portfolio selection with decision trees," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-009, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    4. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    5. Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin & Song, Jeongseok, 2017. "The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 482(C), pages 638-648.
    6. Schrimpf, Andreas & Schröder, Michael & Stehle, Richard, 2006. "Evaluating conditional asset pricing models for the German stock market," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-043, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    5. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    6. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2000. "Multivariate volatility analysis of VW stock prices," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 35-54, March.
    8. Jin, Xiaoye & An, Ximeng, 2016. "Global financial crisis and emerging stock market contagion: A volatility impulse response function approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 179-195.
    9. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, January.
    10. Dominique Guegan & Bertrand K. Hassani, 2019. "Risk Measurement," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02119256, HAL.
    11. Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
    12. Hira Aftab & A. B. M. Rabiul Alam Beg, 2021. "Does Time Varying Risk Premia Exist in the International Bond Market? An Empirical Evidence from Australian and French Bond Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
    13. Bjorn Hansson & Peter Hordahl, 1998. "Testing the conditional CAPM using multivariate GARCH-M," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 377-388.
    14. de Goeij, P. C. & Marquering, W., 2004. "Modeling the conditional covariance between stock and bond returns : A multivariate GARCH approach," Other publications TiSEM 94fe5ada-715a-4339-b94c-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Andrea BUCCI, 2017. "Forecasting Realized Volatility A Review," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 94-138.
    16. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Zhu, Jie, 2010. "Long memory in stock market volatility and the volatility-in-mean effect: The FIEGARCH-M Model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 460-470, June.
    17. Lukáš Frýd, 2018. "Asymetrie během finančních krizí: asymetrická volatilita převyšuje důležitost asymetrické korelace [Asymmetry of Financial Time Series During the Financial Crisis: Asymmetric Volatility Outperforms," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(3), pages 302-329.
    18. de Goeij, Peter & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Stock and bond market interactions with level and asymmetry dynamics: An out-of-sample application," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 318-329, March.
    19. Nelson, Daniel B., 1996. "Asymptotic filtering theory for multivariate ARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 1-47.
    20. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:199922. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfhubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.