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Pricing climate transition risk: Evidence from European corporate CDS

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  • Vozian, Katia
  • Costola, Michele

Abstract

The European low-carbon transition began in the last few decades and is accelerating to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This paper examines how climate-related transition indicators of a large European corporate firm relate to its CDS-implied credit risk across various time horizons. Findings show that firms with higher GHG emissions have higher CDS spreads at all tenors, including the 30-year horizon, particularly after the 2015 Paris Agreement, and in prominent industries such as Electricity, Gas, and Mining. Results suggest that the European CDS market is currently pricing, to some extent, albeit small, the exposure to transition risk for a firm across different time horizons. However, it fails to account for a company's efforts to manage transition risks and its exposure to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. CDS market participants seem to find challenging to risk-differentiate ETS-participating firms from other firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Vozian, Katia & Costola, Michele, 2023. "Pricing climate transition risk: Evidence from European corporate CDS," SAFE Working Paper Series 387, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:387
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4463630
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Galil, Koresh & Shapir, Offer Moshe & Amiram, Dan & Ben-Zion, Uri, 2014. "The determinants of CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 271-282.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; transition risk; credit risk; credit default swap; emissionstrading system (ETS); financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets

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