IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/rwirep/605.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Local governments' indebtedness and its impact on real estate prices

Author

Listed:
  • Micheli, Martin

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of public debt on real estate prices and rental prices. We identify shocks to investment credits of self-governed cities in Germany and control for potential benefits such as an increased supply of public goods, which might come in hand with increased indebtedness. Using spatial variation across self-governed cities allows us to estimate this effect. We find that shocks to public debt have a significant negative effect on apartment prices. Rental prices, on the other hand, do not seem to be affected by public debt. Tenants care more about the current and less about the future tax burden.

Suggested Citation

  • Micheli, Martin, 2016. "Local governments' indebtedness and its impact on real estate prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 605, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:605
    DOI: 10.4419/86788702
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/129932/1/855375922.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4419/86788702?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Bauer & Sven Feuerschütte & Michael Kiefer & Philipp an de Meulen & Martin Micheli & Torsten Schmidt & Lars-Holger Wilke, 2013. "Ein hedonischer Immobilienpreisindex auf Basis von Internetdaten: 2007–2011," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 7(1), pages 5-30, August.
    2. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    3. Downes, Thomas A. & Zabel, Jeffrey E., 2002. "The impact of school characteristics on house prices: Chicago 1987-1991," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 1-25, July.
    4. Brueckner, Jan K., 1979. "Property values, local public expenditure and economic efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 223-245, March.
    5. an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Schaffner, Sandra, 2014. "Documentation of German real estate market data: Sample of real estate advertisements on the internet platform ImmobilienScout24, 2007-2013," RWI Materialien 80, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    6. Bauer, Thomas K. & Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2013. "Distant Event, Local Effects? Fukushima and the German Housing Market," Ruhr Economic Papers 433, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "How did leading indicator forecasts perform during the 2001 recession?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 89(Sum), pages 71-90.
    8. repec:zbw:rwimat:080 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Keith Dowding & Peter John & Stephen Biggs, 1994. "Tiebout : A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(4-5), pages 767-797, May.
    10. Oates, Wallace E, 1969. "The Effects of Property Taxes and Local Public Spending on Property Values: An Empirical Study of Tax Capitalization and the Tiebout Hypothesis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(6), pages 957-971, Nov./Dec..
    11. Bowes, David R. & Ihlanfeldt, Keith R., 2001. "Identifying the Impacts of Rail Transit Stations on Residential Property Values," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, July.
    12. Mordecai Ezekiel, 1938. "The Cobweb Theorem," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 52(2), pages 255-280.
    13. repec:zbw:rwimat:077 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lucas W. Davis, 2011. "The Effect of Power Plants on Local Housing Values and Rents," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1391-1402, November.
    15. Gibbons, Steve & Machin, Stephen, 2003. "Valuing English primary schools," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 197-219, March.
    16. Charles M. Tiebout, 1956. "A Pure Theory of Local Expenditures," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(5), pages 416-416.
    17. David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2007. "Forecasting real housing price growth in the Eighth District states," Regional Economic Development, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 33-42.
    18. Vladimir Bajic, 1983. "The Effects of a New Subway Line on Housing Prices in Metropolitan Toronto," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 20(2), pages 147-158, May.
    19. Mark W. Watson & James H. Stock, 2004. "Combination forecasts of output growth in a seven-country data set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 405-430.
    20. Eichenberger Reiner & Stadelmann David, 2010. "How Federalism Protects Future Generations from Today's Public Debts," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 395-420, December.
    21. Budde, Rüdiger & Eilers, Lea, 2014. "Sozioökonomische Daten auf Rasterebene: Datenbeschreibung der microm-Rasterdaten," RWI Materialien 77, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Agnieszka Kozera & Aldona Standar & Łukasz Satoła, 2020. "Managing Rural Areas in the Context of the Growing Debt of Polish Local Government Units," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-25, August.
    2. Breidenbach Philipp & Eilers Lea, 2018. "RWI-GEO-GRID: Socio-economic data on grid level," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 238(6), pages 609-616, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Micheli, 2020. "Local governments’ indebtedness and its impact on real estate prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(5), pages 1032-1048, April.
    2. Christian A. L. Hilber, 2017. "The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 301-339, April.
    3. David Stadelmann & Reiner Eichenberger, 2014. "Public debts capitalize into property prices: empirical evidence for a new perspective on debt incidence," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(3), pages 498-529, June.
    4. Jaume García & Daniel Montolio & Josep Maria Raya, 2010. "Local Public Expenditures and Housing Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1501-1512, June.
    5. Grodecka, Anna & Hull, Isaiah, 2019. "The Impact of Local Taxes and Public Services on Property Values," Working Paper Series 374, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Deller, Steven C. & Maher, Craig, 2005. "Government, Effectiveness, Performance and Local Property Values," Staff Papers 12638, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    7. Sylvie Charlot & Sonia Paty & Michel Visalli, 2013. "Assessing the impact of local taxation on property prices: a spatial matching contribution," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(9), pages 1151-1166, March.
    8. Isaiah Hull & Anna Grodecka-Messi, 2022. "Measuring the Impact of Taxes and Public Services on Property Values: A Double Machine Learning Approach," Papers 2203.14751, arXiv.org.
    9. Yadavalli, Anita P. & Florax, Raymond J.G.M., 2013. "The Effect of School Quality on House Prices: A Meta-Regression Analysis," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151291, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Xuejuan Su & Huayi Yu, 2022. "Valuing elementary schools: evidence from public school acquisitions in Beijing," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 1117-1141, October.
    11. Angela S. Bergantino & Francesco Porcelli, 2013. "Housing market prices: capitalisation of efficiency in local public service provision. An application with data on Italian urban transport related expenditures," SERIES 0047, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised Aug 2013.
    12. Sylvie Charlot & Sonia Paty & Michel Visalli, 2008. "Assessing the impact of local taxation on property prices: a spatial matching contribution / Evaluer l'impact de la fiscalité locale sur les prix immobiliers : une contribution de l'appariement spatia," INRA UMR CESAER Working Papers 2008/3, INRA UMR CESAER, Centre d'’Economie et Sociologie appliquées à l'’Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux.
    13. Hilber, Christian A. L., 2011. "The economics implications of house price capitalization a survey of an emerging literature," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 58596, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Barrow, Lisa & Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 2004. "Using market valuation to assess public school spending," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(9-10), pages 1747-1769, August.
    15. Stephen Billings & Thomas Thibodeau, 2011. "Intrametropolitan Decentralization: Is Government Structure Capitalized in Residential Property Values?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 416-450, May.
    16. George R. Zodrow, 2019. "Intrajurisdictional Capitalization and the Incidence of the Property Tax," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: George R Zodrow (ed.), TAXATION IN THEORY AND PRACTICE Selected Essays of George R. Zodrow, chapter 16, pages 489-522, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Sung Hoon Kang & Mark Skidmore & Laura Reese, 2015. "The Effects of Changes in Property Tax Rates and School Spending on Residential and Business Property Value Growth," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 300-333, June.
    18. Margaret Brehm & Scott A. Imberman & Michael Naretta, 2017. "Capitalization of Charter Schools into Residential Property Values," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 12(1), pages 1-27, Winter.
    19. Fullerton, Don & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2002. "Tax incidence," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 26, pages 1787-1872, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate prices; local government debt;

    JEL classification:

    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:605. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rwiesde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.