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Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft - eine erste Abschätzung

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  • Döhrn, Roland

Abstract

In China nimmt die Zahl der mit dem neuen Coronavirus Infizierten weiter zu. Die chinesische Regierung versucht die Verbreitung der Infektion zu verhindern und hat die am stärksten betroffene Provinz Hubei vom Rest des Landes abgeriegelt. Der Beitrag liefert eine erste Abschätzung der wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Epidemie für China. Sie baut auf den Erfahrungen der SARS Epidemie auf und diskutiert mögliche Wirkungskanäle. Die Schätzung der Wirkungen auf das chinesische Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) setzt an der Zusammensetzung der Wirtschaft nach Wirtschaftszweigen, der wirtschaftlichen Bedeutung der Provinz Hubei und einer Abschätzung der Betroffenheit der Wirtschaftszweige an. Sie ergibt einen dämpfenden Effekt auf die Zunahme des BIP im ersten Quartal 2020 von etwa 4 Prozentpunkten. Rechnet man gegen, dass Auslandsreisen von Chinesen praktisch unterbunden sind, ermäßigt sich der negative Effekt auf etwa 2,5 Prozentpunkte, weil weniger Einkommen ins Ausland abfließt. Der wirtschaftliche Schaden im ersten Quartal würde sich somit auf rund 405 Milliarden Yuan bzw. knapp 54 Milliarden Euro belaufen. Dies ist eine eher vorsichtige Schätzung, die eine Einschränkung der Produktionstätigkeit für etwa einen Monat unterstellt. Mit der Dauer der Beschränkungen könnten die negativen Wirkungen überproportional zunehmen, weil eine zunehmende Zahl von Unternehmen wegen ausbleibender Zulieferungen der Produktion einschränken muss.

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  • Döhrn, Roland, 2020. "Auswirkungen der COVID-19 Epidemie auf die chinesische Wirtschaft - eine erste Abschätzung," RWI Materialien 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwimat:134
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