IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/qucehw/280962.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966

Author

Listed:
  • Lennard, Jason
  • Kenny, Seán
  • Horgan, Emma

Abstract

This paper studies a natural experiment in macroeconomic history: the Irish bank strike of 1966, which led to the closure of the major commercial banks for three months. We use synthetic control to estimate how the economy would have evolved had the strike not happened. We find that economic activity slowed, deviating by 6% from the counterfactual path. Narrative evidence not only supports this finding, but also depicts the struggles of households and firms managing a credit crunch, a liquidity shock, and rising transaction costs. This case study highlights the importance of banks for economic performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Lennard, Jason & Kenny, Seán & Horgan, Emma, 2023. "Banks and the economy: Evidence from the Irish bank strike of 1966," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-11, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:280962
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/280962/1/187711538X.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. da Rocha, Bruno T. & Solomou, Solomos, 2015. "The effects of systemic banking crises in the inter-war period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 35-49.
    2. Jason Lennard, 2020. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 844-867, August.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(2), pages 564-608, February.
    4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    5. Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2016. "Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2426-2457, September.
    6. Matthew Baron & Emil Verner & Wei Xiong, 2021. "Banking Crises Without Panics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(1), pages 51-113.
    7. Murphy, Antoin E, 1978. "Money in an Economy without Banks: The Case of Ireland," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 46(1), pages 41-50, March.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    12. François R. Velde, 2009. "Chronicle of a Deflation Unforetold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 591-634, August.
    13. Patrick Honohan & Brendan Walsh, 2002. "Catching Up with the Leaders: The Irish Hare," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(1), pages 1-78.
    14. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Chapter 1," MPRA Paper 17452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Andrew J. Jalil, 2015. "A New History of Banking Panics in the United States, 1825-1929: Construction and Implications," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 295-330, July.
    16. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    17. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    18. Nuno Palma, 2019. "The Real Effects of Monetary Expansions: Evidence from a Large-Scale Historical Natural Experiment," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1904, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised Aug 2021.
    19. Kenny, Sean & Ögren, Anders & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "The highs and the lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    20. Honohan, Patrick, 1994. "Currency Board or Central Bank? Lessons from the Irish Pound's Link with Sterling, 1928-79," CEPR Discussion Papers 1040, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Ashok Kaul & Stefan Klößner & Gregor Pfeifer & Manuel Schieler, 2022. "Standard Synthetic Control Methods: The Case of Using All Preintervention Outcomes Together With Covariates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1362-1376, June.
    22. Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "The Highs and the Lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926," Lund Papers in Economic History 246, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    23. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    24. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    2. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    3. Hardy, Bryan & Sever, Can, 2021. "Financial crises and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    4. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Maximilian Grimm & Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "Loose Monetary Policy and Financial Instability," Working Paper Series 2023-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    8. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Jiménez, Gabriel & Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Peydro, Jose-Luis & Richter, Björn, 2022. "Monetary policy, inflation, and crises: New evidence from history and administrative data," CEPR Discussion Papers 17761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Matthew Knowles, 2023. "Capital Deaccumulation and the Large Persistent Effects of Financial Crises," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 218, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    13. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    14. Ristolainen, Kim & Roukka, Tomi & Nyberg, Henri, 2024. "A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "When Credit Bites Back," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 3-28, December.
    16. I. Koetsier, 2017. "The fiscal impact of natural disasters," Working Papers 17-17, Utrecht School of Economics.
    17. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2018. "Publish and Perish: Creative Destruction and Macroeconomic Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 65-101.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2022. "From Health Crisis to Financial Distress," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 4-31, March.
    19. Nicholas Oulton, 2013. "Medium and long run prospects for UK growth in the aftermath of the financial crisis," Discussion Papers 1307, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    20. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Ireland; macroeconomy; post-war;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:280962. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/chqubuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.