IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/qucehw/202303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The highs and the lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926

Author

Listed:
  • Kenny, Sean
  • Ögren, Anders
  • Zhao, Liang

Abstract

This paper revisits the Swedish banking crisis (1919-26) that materialized as post war deflation replaced wartime inflation (1914-18). Inspired by Fisher's 'debt deflation theory', we employ survival analysis to 'predict' which banks would fail, given certain ex-ante bank characteristics. Our tests support the theory; maturity structures mattered most in a regime of falling prices, with vulnerable shorter-term customer loans and bank liabilities representing the most consistent cause of bank distress in the crisis. Similarly, stronger growth in i) leverage, ii) weaker collateral loans and iii) foreign borrowing during the boom were all associated with bank failure in post-war Sweden (1919-26).

Suggested Citation

  • Kenny, Sean & Ögren, Anders & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "The highs and the lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926," QUCEH Working Paper Series 23-03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202303
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/268424/1/1832919900.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lennard, Jason & Kenny, Seán & Horgan, Emma, 2023. "Banks and the Economy: Evidence from the Irish Bank Strike of 1966," CEPR Discussion Papers 18711, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kenny, Seán & Turner, John D., 2018. "Wildcat bankers or political failure? The Irish financial pantomime, 1797-1826," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2018-07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    2. Jason Lennard, 2020. "Uncertainty and the Great Slump," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 844-867, August.
    3. Braggion, Fabio & Dwarkasing, Narly & Moore, Lyndon, 2022. "Value creating mergers: British bank consolidation, 1885–1925," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    4. Schneider, Benjamin & Vipond, Hillary, 2023. "The past and future of work: how history can inform the age of automation," Economic History Working Papers 119282, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    5. Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders & Zhao, Liang, 2023. "The Highs and the Lows: Bank failures in Sweden through inflation and deflation, 1914-1926," Lund Papers in Economic History 246, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    6. Kenny, Seán & Lennard, Jason & Turner, John D., 2021. "The macroeconomic effects of banking crises: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1750–1938," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    7. Kenny, Seán & Turner, John D., 2018. "Wildcat Bankers or Political Failure? The Irish Financial Pantomime, 1797-1826," Lund Papers in Economic History 176, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    8. repec:pra:mprapa:117955 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; survival analysis; early warning indicators; debt deflation; maturity mismatch; Sweden;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:qucehw:202303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/chqubuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.