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Is financial speculation with agricultural commodities harmful or helpful? A literature review of current empirical research

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  • Will, Matthias Georg
  • Prehn, Sören
  • Pies, Ingo
  • Glauben, Thomas

Abstract

This literature survey comprises 35 empirical studies published between 2010 and 2012 that analyze the influence of financial speculation on the markets for agricultural commodities. According to the current state of research, there is little supporting evidence that the recent increase in financial speculation has caused either a)of the price level, or (b) the price volatility in agricultural markets to rise. Rather, fundamental factors are responsible for this. Therefore, most papers are not in favor of, but against (c) erecting market barriers by regulation. Against this background, the public alarm, which claims that financial speculation has detrimental effects and should be forbidden, seems to be a false alarm. Those who are interested in fighting global hunger should take care of fundamental factors and take appropriate measures to keep supply in step with demand, which is likely to rise in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Is financial speculation with agricultural commodities harmful or helpful? A literature review of current empirical research," Discussion Papers 2012-27, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:mlucee:201227
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    1. Gemmill, Gordon, 1996. "Transparency and Liquidity: A Study of Block Trades on the London Stock Exchange under Different Publication Rules," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1765-1790, December.
    2. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2011. "New Evidence on the Impact of Index Funds in U.S. Grain Futures Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59(4), pages 519-532, December.
    3. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
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    Cited by:

    1. Will, Matthias Georg & Pies, Ingo, 2014. "Discourse and regulation failures: The ambivalent influence of NGOs on political organizations," Discussion Papers 2014-2, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    2. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2016. "The "Necessity" of New Position Limits in Agricultural Futures Markets: The Verdict from Daily Firm-level Position Data," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 292-317.
    3. Georg Lehecka, 2015. "Do hedging and speculative pressures drive commodity prices, or the other way round?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 575-603, September.
    4. Grosche, Stephanie & Heckelei, Thomas, 2014. "Price dynamics and financialization effects in corn futures markets with heterogeneous traders," Discussion Papers 172077, University of Bonn, Institute for Food and Resource Economics.
    5. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2014. "Energy futures prices and commodity index investment: New evidence from firm-level position data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 57-68.
    6. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2013. "Does financial speculation with agricultural commodities cause hunger? A reply to our critics," Discussion Papers 2013-25, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    7. Prehn Sören & Glauben Thomas & Pies Ingo & Will Matthias & Loy Jens-Peter, 2013. "Betreiben Indexfonds Agrarspekulation? Erläuterungen zum Geschäftsmodell und zum weiteren Forschungsbedarf / Do Index Funds Speculate on Agricultural Futures Markets? Explanatory Notes on the Business," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 64(1), pages 421-442, January.
    8. Serrao, Amilcar, 2016. "A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235638, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. repec:zbw:iamodp:158731 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Lehecka, Georg V., 2013. "Have food and financial markets integrated? An empirical assessment on aggregate data," 53rd Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 25-27, 2013 156108, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    11. Prehn, Sören & Glauben, Thomas & Pies, Ingo & Will, Matthias Georg & Loy, Jens-Peter, 2013. "Betreiben Indexfonds Agrarspekulation?: Erläuterungen zum Geschäftsmodell und zum weiteren Forschungsbedarf," IAMO Discussion Papers 158731, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    12. Lehecka, G., 2014. "Have food and financial markets integrated? An empirical assessment on aggregate data," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 49, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial speculation; futures market; agricultural commodities; regulation; position limits; transaction tax; volatility; price level; Finanzspekulation; Terminmarkt; Agrarrohstoffe; Regulierung; Positions-Limits; Transaktionssteuer; Volatilität; Preisniveau;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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