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A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices

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  • Serrao, Amilcar

Abstract

Some research works state that speculation with agricultural commodities on the futures market has risen agricultural commodity spot prices. This research work analyzes the causal relationships between spot prices of corn, wheat, and soybean and agricultural commodity futures trading activities. These causal relationships between agricultural commodity spot prices and financial variables are tested for Granger-causality. Model results show that causal relationships have been found among changes in “volume traded” and “open positions” of futures contracts and changes in spot prices for corn. These results do not show that financial speculation might be a major driver of rising agricultural commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Serrao, Amilcar, 2016. "A controversial debate between financial speculation and changes in agricultural commodity spot prices," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235638, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea16:235638
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.235638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    2. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    3. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, November.
    4. Will, Matthias Georg & Prehn, Sören & Pies, Ingo & Glauben, Thomas, 2012. "Is financial speculation with agricultural commodities harmful or helpful? A literature review of current empirical research," Discussion Papers 2012-27, Martin Luther University of Halle-Wittenberg, Chair of Economic Ethics.
    5. Colman,David & Young,Trevor, 1989. "Principles of Agricultural Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521336642, November.
    6. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, November.
    7. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    8. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238, January.
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    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance; Financial Economics;

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