IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v102y2020i3p759-785.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Impact of Financial Investments on Agricultural Futures Prices using Changes in Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Hachula
  • Malte Rieth

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of financial investments on agricultural futures prices, using structural vector autoregressions. We identify exogenous variation in net long positions of speculators through heteroskedasticity. We first show that demand shocks of both index investors and noncommercial traders lead to a statistically significant contemporaneous increase in futures prices. We then quantify the economic importance of these shocks. Our findings suggest a negligible contribution of index investors’ demand shocks and only a small contribution of noncommercials’ demand shocks to futures price dynamics, both on average and during the boom‐busts in 2007/08 and 2011/12.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Estimating the Impact of Financial Investments on Agricultural Futures Prices using Changes in Volatility," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 759-785, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:3:p:759-785
    DOI: 10.1093/ajae/aaz024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aaz024
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1093/ajae/aaz024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ederer, Stefan & Heumesser, Christine & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "The role of fundamentals and financialisation in recent commodity price developments: An empirical analysis for wheat, coffee, cotton, and oil," Working Papers 42, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    3. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lütkepohl, 2008. "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks via Changes in Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1131-1149, September.
    4. Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H, 1990. "The Noise Trader Approach to Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 19-33, Spring.
    5. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. Bahattin Buyuksahin & Jeffrey H. Harris, 2011. "Do Speculators Drive Crude Oil Futures Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 167-202.
    8. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
    9. Jean-Paul Chavas & David Hummels & Brian D. Wright, 2014. "The Economics of Food Price Volatility," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number chav12-1.
    10. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    11. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    13. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    14. Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
    15. Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Index Investment and the Financialization of Commodities," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(6), pages 54-74, November.
    16. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    17. Suleyman Basak & Anna Pavlova, 2016. "A Model of Financialization of Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1511-1556, August.
    18. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    19. Nicole M. Aulerich & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2014. "Bubbles, Food Prices, and Speculation: Evidence from the CFTC's Daily Large Trader Data Files," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 211-253, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    22. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    23. Brett W. Fawley & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Four stories of quantitative easing," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 51-88.
    24. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2015. "Information Diversity and Complementarities in Trading and Information Acquisition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1723-1765, August.
    25. Witsanu Attavanich & Bruce A. McCarl & David Bessler, 2011. "The Effect of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Media Coverage on Agricultural Commodity Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(2), pages 241-259.
    26. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2011. "New Evidence on the Impact of Index Funds in U.S. Grain Futures Markets," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 59(4), pages 519-532, December.
    27. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    28. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    29. Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Informational Frictions and Commodity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2063-2098, October.
    30. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
    31. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2017. "Bubbles, Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 345-365, June.
    32. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    33. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    34. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    35. Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Investor Flows and the 2008 Boom/Bust in Oil Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(2), pages 300-318, February.
    36. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, April.
    37. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "The Growing Interdependence Between Financial And Commodity Markets," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 195, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    38. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    39. Christopher L. Gilbert & Simone Pfuderer, 2014. "The Role of Index Trading in Price Formation in the Grains and Oilseeds Markets," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 303-322, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    2. Bernhard Tröster & Ulrich Gunter, 2023. "The Financialization of Coffee, Cocoa and Cotton Value Chains: The Role of Physical Actors," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(6), pages 1550-1574, November.
    3. Hua, Renhai & Liu, Qingfu & Tse, Yiuman & Yu, Qin, 2023. "The impact of natural disaster risk on the return of agricultural futures," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2023. "Price bubbles of agricultural commodities: evidence from China’s futures market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(1), pages 195-222, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Hachula & Malte Rieth, 2017. "Identifying Speculative Demand Shocks in Commodity Futures Markets through Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1646, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2018. "Mapping algorithms, agricultural futures, and the relationship between commodity investment flows and crude oil futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 486-504.
    3. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    4. Wimmer, Thomas & Geyer-Klingeberg, Jerome & Hütter, Marie & Schmid, Florian & Rathgeber, Andreas, 2021. "The impact of speculation on commodity prices: A Meta-Granger analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    5. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    6. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    7. Bierbaumer, Daniel & Rieth, Malte & Velinov, Anton, 2021. "The state-dependent trading behavior of banks in the oil futures market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 1011-1024.
    8. Bosch, David & Smimou, K., 2022. "Traders’ motivation and hedging pressure in commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "The challenges of oil investing: Contango and the financialization of commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    11. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Velinov, Anton, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions : Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions via Heteroskedasticity," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 30, pages 377-392.
    12. Itay Goldstein & Liyan Yang, 2022. "Commodity Financialization and Information Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(5), pages 2613-2667, October.
    13. Mohammad Isleimeyyeh, 2020. "The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1375-1397, September.
    14. Daniel Bierbaumer & Malte Rieth & Anton Velinov, 2018. "Nonlinear Intermediary Pricing in the Oil Futures Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1722, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Xiao, Qin & Yan, Meilan & Zhang, Dalu, 2023. "Commodity market financialization, herding and signals: An asymmetric GARCH R-vine copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    17. Yan, Lei & Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2017. "Identifying the Impact of Financialization in Commodity Futures Prices from Index Rebalancing," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258504, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Filippo Natoli, 2018. "Analyzing the structural transformation of commodity markets: financialization revisited," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 419, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:102:y:2020:i:3:p:759-785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.