IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/vpaper/1036.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical Macromodels Under Test

Author

Listed:
  • Buscher, Herbert S.
  • Buslei, Hermann
  • Göggelmann, Klaus
  • Koschel, Henrike
  • Schmidt, Tobias F. N.
  • Steiner, Viktor
  • Winker, Peter

Abstract

This paper examines the employment effects of a revenue-neutral cut in the social security contribution rate in Germany by running policy simulations in four different types of macroeconomic models. Two models are based on time-series data where the labor market is modeled basically demand oriented, whereas the other two models are supply oriented computable general equilibrium models. While the predicted employment effects of the cut in the contribution rate are qualitatively similar across models three years after the cut, they differ considerably in magnitude. These differences can to a large extent be attributed to differences in the basic structure of the models. Of special importance is how prices and wages react in each model to the cut in the social security tax rate on one side, and the necessary increase of the indirect tax rate on the other side. The results, therefore, provide a guideline for assessing the outcome of policy simulations and for the further development of macroeconomic models suitable for this kind of experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Göggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2000. "Empirical Macromodels Under Test," Discussion Papers 575, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
    • Handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1036
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/1036/1/575.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fehr, Hans & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 1996. "Numerische Gleichgewichtsmodelle: Grundstruktur, Anwendungen und Erkenntnisgehalt," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 75, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
    2. Bovenberg, A Lans & Goulder, Lawrence H, 1996. "Optimal Environmental Taxation in the Presence of Other Taxes: General-Equilibrium Analyses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 985-1000, September.
    3. Lans Bovenberg, A. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 1994. "Environmental taxes and labor-market distortions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 655-683, December.
    4. de Bovenberg, A Lans & Mooij, Ruud A, 1994. "Environmental Levies and Distortionary Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1085-1089, September.
    5. Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1996. "The Empirical Foundations of Calibration," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 87-104, Winter.
    6. Heilemann, Ullrich & Wolters, Jürgen (ed.), 1998. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Modelle in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Erfahrungen und Perspektiven," RWI Schriften, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, volume 61, number 61.
    7. Bovenberg, A.L. & Goulder, L.H., 1996. "Optimal environmental taxation in the presence of other taxes : General equilibrium analyses," Other publications TiSEM 5d4b7517-c5c8-4ef6-ab76-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Hans Fehr, 1997. "Belastungswirkungen der aktuellen Reformvorschläge zur Einkommensbesteuerung und zur Alterssicherung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 66(3/4), pages 362-381.
    9. Capros, P. & Karadeloglou, P. & Mentzas, G., 1990. "An empirical assessment of macroeconometric and CGE approaches in policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 557-585.
    10. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550, January.
    11. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    12. Franz, Wolfgang & Konig, Heinz, 1990. "A disequilibrium approach to unemployment in the Federal Republic of Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 413-422, May.
    13. Franz, Wolfgang & Göggelmann, Klaus & Winker, Peter, 1996. "Ein makroökonometrisches Ungleichgewichtsmodell für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft 1960 bis 1994: Konzeption, Ergebnisse und Erfahrungen," Discussion Papers, Series II 327, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buscher, Herbert S. & Buslei, Hermann & Goggelmann, Klaus & Koschel, Henrike & Schmidt, Tobias F. N. & Steiner, Viktor & Winker, Peter, 2001. "Empirical macro models under test. A comparative simulation study of the employment effects of a revenue neutral cut in social security contributions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 455-474, August.
    2. Fullerton, Don & Ta, Chi L., 2019. "Environmental policy on the back of an envelope: A Cobb-Douglas model is not just a teaching tool," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(S1).
    3. Lawrence H. Goulder & Ian W.H. Parry & Roberton C. Williams III & Dallas Burtraw, 2002. "The Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Instruments for Environmental Protection in a Second-Best Setting," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 27, pages 523-554, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Chiroleu-Assouline, Mireille & Fodha, Mouez, 2006. "Double dividend hypothesis, golden rule and welfare distribution," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 323-335, May.
    5. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline & Mouez Fodha, 2011. "Verdissement de la fiscalité. À qui profite le double dividende ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 409-431.
    6. Zylicz, Tomasz, 2010. "Goals and Principles of Environmental Policy," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 299-334, May.
    7. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Goulder, Lawrence H., 2002. "Environmental taxation and regulation," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1471-1545, Elsevier.
    8. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2001. "Le double dividende. Les approches théoriques," Revue Française d'Économie, Programme National Persée, vol. 16(2), pages 119-147.
    9. Lawrence H. Goulder & Ian W.H. Parry & Dallas Burtraw, 2002. "Revenue-Raising versus Other Approaches to Environmental Protection: The Critical Significance of Preexisting Tax Distortions," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 24, pages 447-470, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Ian W.H. Parry & Roberton C. Williams III & Lawrence H. Goulder, 2002. "When Can Carbon Abatement Policies Increase Welfare? The Fundamental Role of Distorted Factor Markets," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 25, pages 471-503, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Sanz, Nicolas & Schwartz, Sonia, 2013. "Are pollution permit markets harmful for employment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 374-383.
    12. Emmanuel Combet & Frédéric Ghersi & Jean Charles Hourcade & Daniel Théry, 2010. "Carbon Tax and Equity : The Importance of Policy Design," Post-Print halshs-00692516, HAL.
    13. Peichl, Andreas, 2005. "Die Evaluation von Steuerreformen durch Simulationsmodelle," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 05-1, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    14. Chung-Fu Lai, 2016. "Examining the Double Dividend Effect of Energy Tax with the Overlapping Generations Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(1), pages 53-57.
    15. Böhringer, Christoph & Ruocco, Anna & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2001. "Energy taxes and employment: a do-it-yourself simulation model," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-21, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    16. Christoph Böhringer & Wolfgang Wiegard & Collin Starkweather & Anna Ruocco, 2003. "Green Tax Reforms and Computational Economics A Do-it-yourself Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 22(1), pages 75-109, August.
    17. Marc Vielle & Alain L. Bernard, 1998. "Un exemple d'utilisation : le coût de politiques de réduction des gaz à effet de serre," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 136(5), pages 33-48.
    18. Fankhauser, Samuel & Jotzo, Frank, 2017. "Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86850, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Don Fullerton & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 2002. "Environmental Controls, Scarcity Rents, and Pre-existing Distortions," Chapters, in: Lawrence H. Goulder (ed.), Environmental Policy Making in Economies with Prior Tax Distortions, chapter 26, pages 504-522, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Bruno De Borger & Bart Wuyts, 2009. "Commuting, Transport Tax Reform and the Labour Market: Employer-paid Parking and the Relative Efficiency of Revenue Recycling Instruments," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 213-233, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:vpaper:1036. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Katharina Rautenberg (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ivmande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.