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A Market-based Indicator of Currency Risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Roevekamp, Ingmar

Abstract

We introduce a novel currency risk measure based on American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using a multifactor pricing model, we exploit ADR investors' exposure to potential devaluation losses to derive an indicator of currency risk. Using weekly data for a sample of 831 ADRs located in 23 emerging markets over the 1994-2014 period, we find that a deterioration in the fiscal and current account balance, as well as higher inflation, increases currency risk. Interaction models reveal that these macroeconomic fundamentals drive currency risk, particularly in countries with managed exchange rates, low levels of foreign exchange reserves and a poor sovereign credit rating.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichler, Stefan & Roevekamp, Ingmar, 2016. "A Market-based Indicator of Currency Risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-4-16
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency risk; currency crises; American depositary receipts; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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