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The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Karmann, Alexander
  • Maltritz, Dominik

Abstract

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners' currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2009. "The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1983-1995, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:11:p:1983-1995
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    4. Rövekamp, Ingmar & Eichler, Stefan, 2016. "A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145791, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Kadapakkam, Palani-Rajan & Meisami, Alex & Shi, Yilun, 2010. "Lost in translation: Delayed ex-dividend price adjustments of Hong Kong ADRs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 647-655, March.
    6. Hales, Alma D. & Mollick, André V., 2014. "The impact of ADR activity on stock market liquidity: Evidence from Latin America," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 417-427.
    7. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Jamie Kang & Tim Leung, 2017. "Asynchronous ADRs: overnight vs intraday returns and trading strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 580-596, October.
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    10. NAGY, Ágnes & DÉZSI-BENYOVSZKI, Annamária & SZÉKELY, Imre, 2016. "Measuring Financial Systemic Stress In Romania: A Composite Indicator Approach," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(3), pages 28-38.
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