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A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina

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  • Melvin, Michael

Abstract

Beginning in late 2001, Argentina experienced a tumultuous economic and social crisis including the end of the decade-long peso peg to the dollar, drastic foreign exchange and capital controls, violent anti-government demonstrations, social unrest, and the largest debt default in history. Yet the Argentine stock market experienced a boom during the early period of the crisis. This is in contrast to the experience of other countries undergoing financial crises, where the domestic stock market experiences sharp declines in value. This paper explains the surprising Argentine experience as a result of investors using the stock market to shift funds out of Argentina and into the United States. This was accomplished via purchases in Argentina of shares of firms listed in the United States and traded as American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). These Argentine shares were converted into ADRs and sold in the U.S. to shift out of pesos in Argentina into dollars in the United States. While ADRs and underlying share prices typically trade in a very narrow range, during the time when ADR conversions were permitted in Argentina, a large premium on share prices in Argentina relative to ADR prices existed. This premium reflected the capital loss expected on peso investments in Argentina and the value of capital control avoidance. On March 25, 2002, the conversion of Argentine shares into ADRs was prohibited and the premium of Argentine share prices over ADR prices once again returned to fluctuate about zero.
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  • Melvin, Michael, 2003. "A stock market boom during a financial crisis?: ADRs and capital outflows in Argentina," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 129-136, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:81:y:2003:i:1:p:129-136
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    1. Stock as a medium of exchange
      by JP Koning in Moneyness on 2014-10-04 20:55:00

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    1. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Sergio L. Schmukler & Neeltje van Horen, 2010. "Crises, Capital Controls and Financial Integration," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Mario B. Lamberte (ed.), Managing Capital Flows, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    3. Auguste, Sebastian & Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Kamil, Herman & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Cross-border trading as a mechanism for implicit capital flight: ADRs and the Argentine crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1259-1295, October.
    4. Kristin J. Forbes, 2007. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 171-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2017. "Eurozone exit risk," CEPIE Working Papers 07/17, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    6. Chandar, Nandini & Patro, Dilip K. & Yezegel, Ari, 2009. "Crises, contagion and cross-listings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1709-1729, September.
    7. Eichler, Stefan & Karmann, Alexander & Maltritz, Dominik, 2009. "The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1983-1995, November.
    8. Gagnon, Louis & Andrew Karolyi, G., 2010. "Multi-market trading and arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 53-80, July.
    9. Lulu Gu & W. Robert Reed, 2011. "One For All or All For One? Using Multiple-listing Information in Event Studies," Working Papers in Economics 11/33, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    10. Grammig, Joachim & Melvin, Michael & Schlag, Christian, 2005. "Internationally cross-listed stock prices during overlapping trading hours: price discovery and exchange rate effects," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 139-164, January.
    11. Rövekamp, Ingmar & Eichler, Stefan, 2016. "A market-based indicator of currency risk: Evidence from American Depositary Receipts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145791, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Eichler, Stefan, 2012. "Limited investor attention and the mispricing of American Depositary Receipts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 490-492.
    13. Eichler, Stefan, 2011. "Exchange rate expectations and the pricing of Chinese cross-listed stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 443-455, February.
    14. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
    15. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.
    16. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2004. "The price of inconvertible deposits: the stock market boom during the Argentine crisis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 7-13, April.
    17. Chen, Haiqiang & Choi, Paul Moon Sub & Kim, Hyunseob, 2008. "American depositary receipts: Asia-Pacific evidence on convergence and dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 346-368, October.
    18. Maltritz, Dominik & Eichler, Stefan, 2010. "Currency crisis prediction using ADR market data: An options-based approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 858-884, October.
    19. Tang, Wenbin & Zhu, Lili, 2017. "How security prices respond to a surge in investor attention: Evidence from Google Search of ADRs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 38-50.
    20. Rövekamp, Ingmar, 2019. "US Monetary Policy and the Stability of Currency Pegs," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203525, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2008. "The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 193-207, December.
    22. Eichler, Stefan & Roevekamp, Ingmar, 2018. "A market-based measure for currency risk in managed exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-159.
    23. Omar Esqueda & Dave Jackson, 2012. "Currency depreciation effects on ADR returns: evidence from Latin America," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 36(3), pages 691-711, July.
    24. Roevekamp, Ingmar, 2021. "The impact of US monetary policy on managed exchange rates and currency peg regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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