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The Political Determinants of Government Bond Holdings

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  • Eichler, Stefan
  • Plaga, Timo

Abstract

This paper analyzes the link between political factors and sovereign bond holdings of US investors in 60 countries over the 2003-2013 period. We find that, in general, US investors hold more bonds in countries with few political constraints on the government. Moreover, US investors respond to increased uncertainty around major elections by reducing government bond holdings. These effects are particularly significant in democratic regimes and countries with sound institutions, which enable effective implementation of fiscal consolidation measures or economic reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2016. "The Political Determinants of Government Bond Holdings," IWH Discussion Papers 14/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-14-16
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    Cited by:

    1. Eichler, Stefan & Nauerth, Jannik A., 2021. "Bilateral investment treaties and sovereign default risk," CEPIE Working Papers 04/21, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    2. Frimpong Boamah, Emmanuel & Sumberg, James, 2019. "The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Park, Donghyun & Taniguchi, Kiyoshi & Tian, Shu, 2019. "Determinants of foreign and domestic investment bias in global bond markets: Some empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 287-303.
    4. João Martins, 2022. "Bond Yields Movement Similarities and Synchronization in the G7: A Time–Frequency Analysis," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 189-214, July.
    5. Park, Donghyun & Taniguchi, Kiyoshi & Tian, Shu, 2018. "Foreign and Domestic Investment in Global Bond Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 535, Asian Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government bond portfolio; political factors; Treasury International Capital data; PPML;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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