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Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions: New Data and New Methods

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Abstract

The role of capital flows in the buildup to the global financial crisis and the potential vulnerabilities posed by capital flows to emerging market economies highlight the importance of reliable and timely measures of cross-border investment activity to better monitor developments as they unfold. We present new monthly estimates of U.S. cross-border securities investment, combining information from detailed annual Treasury International Capital (TIC) surveys with new information from the TIC form SLT. We also show how changes in the new monthly data can be decomposed into flows, estimated valuation changes, and a residual \"gap\". These decompositions can provide a richer and timelier view of developments in both foreign portfolio investment in the U.S. and U.S. portfolio investment abroad than available from transactions data or survey data alone. Data on cross-border holdings through December 2013, by country, are available for download; we also provide advice on how to construct estimates going forward. These data can be combined with the existing Bertaut-Tryon monthly estimates of securities holdings (now updated through 2011) to generate consistent monthly time series of positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol C. Bertaut & Ruth A. Judson, 2014. "Estimating U.S. Cross-Border Securities Positions: New Data and New Methods," International Finance Discussion Papers 1113, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1113
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    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat, 2011. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: Link or no link?," BIS Working Papers 346, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    8. Carol C. Bertaut, 2009. "The financial crisis and U.S. cross-border financial flows," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 95(Nov), November.
    9. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2011. "U.S. international equity investment and past prospective returns," International Finance Discussion Papers 1016, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Anaya, Pablo & Hachula, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2017. "Spillovers of U.S. unconventional monetary policy to emerging markets: The role of capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 275-295.
    2. Harrison, Andre & Reed, Robert R., 2023. "Gross capital inflows, the U.S. economy, and the response of the Federal Reserve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Meng He & Zuzana Filkova, 2019. "Who holds banks’ debt securities? Statistical methods for allocation by holders," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Jiri Havel, 2023. "Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Portfolio Investment: A Tale of Advanced and Emerging Markets," Working papers 2023rwp-221, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    5. Eichler, Stefan & Plaga, Timo, 2017. "The political determinants of government bond holdings," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 1-21.
    6. Cova, Pietro & Natoli, Filippo, 2020. "The risk-taking channel of international financial flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    7. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Moreland, Timothy & Schaffer, Matthew, 2021. "The international spillover effects of US monetary policy uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "The shortage of safe assets in the US investment portfolio: Some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 318-336.
    9. Bhattarai, Saroj & Chatterjee, Arpita & Park, Woong Yong, 2020. "Global spillover effects of US uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 71-89.
    10. Ferreira, Thiago R.T. & Shousha, Samer, 2023. "Determinants of global neutral interest rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Numan Ülkü & Petar Petrov, 2015. "How Reliable Are the Findings of ‘Foreign’ Investor Studies That Use TIC Data? A Look from the Host Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 521-553, December.
    12. Grossmann, Axel & Paul, Chris & Simpson, Marc W., 2017. "The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 57-76.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; portfolio investment; treasury international capital; U.S. treasuries; emerging market economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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