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A financial risk meter for China

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Ruting
  • Althof, Michael
  • Härdle, Wolfgang

Abstract

This paper develops a new risk meter specifically for China - FRM@China - to detect systemic financial risk as well as tail-event (TE) dependencies among major financial institutions (FIs). Compared with the CBOE FIX VIX, which is currently the most popular financial risk measure, FRM@China has less noise. It also emitted a risk signature much earlier than the CBOE FIX VIX index in the 2020 COVID pandemic. In addition, FRM@China uses a single quantile-lasso regression model to allow both the assessment of risk transfer between different sectors in which FIs operate and the prediction of systemic risk. Because the risk indicator in FRM@China is based on penalization terms, its relationship with macro variables are unknown and non-linear. This paper further expands the existing FRM approach by using Shapley values to identify the dynamic contribution of different macro features in this type of "black box" situation. The results show that short-term interest rates and forward guidance are significant risk drivers. This paper considers the interaction among FIs from mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to provide an enhanced regional tool set for regulators to evaluate financial policy responses. All quantlets are available on quantlet.com.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Ruting & Althof, Michael & Härdle, Wolfgang, 2021. "A financial risk meter for China," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2021-022, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:irtgdp:2021022
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FRM (Financial Risk Meter); Lasso Quantile Regression; Financial Network; China; Shapley value;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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