IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-04141067.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries

Author

Listed:
  • Irfan Akbar Kazi

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Hakimzadi Wagan
  • Farhan Akbar

Abstract

We study the changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks to 14 major OECD countries over the period 1981Q1-2010Q4. We use a time-varying parameter factor augmented VAR approach to study the effective federal funds rate shocks together with a large data set of 265, major financial, macroeconomic and trade variables. Our main findings are as follows. First, negative US monetary policy shocks have considerable negative impact on GDP growth in the US, Canada, Japan and Sweden whereas there is positive impact on GDP growth in the most of the other member countries. Second, the transmission to GDP growth has increased in OECD countries since the early 1980s. Third, the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to major economic and financial variables varies in magnitude during financial turmoil periods than normal periods such as the gross fixed capital formation residential, turned most negative over the second quarter after the initial shock in the US, Canada, Germany, Japan, Switzerland and New Zealand mainly during 2008Q4. Asset prices, interest rates and trade channel seem to play major role in propagation of monetary policy shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Irfan Akbar Kazi & Hakimzadi Wagan & Farhan Akbar, 2012. "The changing international transmission of US monetary policy shocks: is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Working Papers hal-04141067, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141067
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04141067/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2005. "What Explains the Stock Market's Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1221-1257, June.
    2. Mazur I. & Sapachuk Y., 2009. "The reasons of the financial crisis under globalization," Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Economics. Вісник Киiвського нацiонального унiверситету iм. Тараса Шевченка. Серiя: Економiка, CyberLeninka;Издательско-полиграфический центр «Киевский университет», issue 109, pages 9-13.
    3. Michael Owyang & Howard Wall, 2009. "Regional VARs and the channels of monetary policy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1191-1194.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 2010. "What Powers for the Federal Reserve?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 134-145, March.
    5. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    6. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    7. Haug, Alfred A. & Karagedikli, Ozer & Ranchhod, Satish, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission mechanisms and currency unions: A vector error correction approach to a Trans-Tasman currency union," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 55-74, February.
    8. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Implementing the Macroprudential Approach to Financial Regulation and Supervision," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Green & Eric J. Pentecost & Tom Weyman-Jones (ed.), The Financial Crisis and the Regulation of Finance, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    10. Thorbecke, Willem, 1997. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 635-654, June.
    11. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    12. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.
    13. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    15. Claudio Borio, 2008. "The financial turmoil of 2007-?: a preliminary assessment and some policy considerations," BIS Working Papers 251, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Philip R. Lane IIIS, Trinity College Dublin and CEPR, 2009. "Innovation and Financial Globalisation," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp299, IIIS.
    17. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    18. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
    19. Dedola, Luca & Lippi, Francesco, 2005. "The monetary transmission mechanism: Evidence from the industries of five OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1543-1569, August.
    20. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    21. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    22. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    23. Gary Gorton, 2009. "Information, Liquidity, and the (Ongoing) Panic of 2007," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 567-572, May.
    24. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    25. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Great Recession: US dynamics and spillovers to the world economy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-13.
    26. Joao Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2008. "Monetary policy shocks in the euro area and global liquidity spillovers," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 205-218.
    27. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
    28. Stefano Neri & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "The Transmission of US Monetary Policy to the Euro Area," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 55-78, March.
    29. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 705-722, August.
    30. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    31. Todd Potts & David Yerger, 2010. "Variations Across Canadian Regions in the Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(4), pages 443-454, December.
    32. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    33. Jacopo Carmassi & Daniel Gros & Stefano Micossi, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 977-996, November.
    34. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    35. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    36. Eickmeier, Sandra, 2007. "Business cycle transmission from the US to Germany--A structural factor approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 521-551, April.
    37. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "How Central Should the Central Bank Be?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-133, March.
    38. Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
    39. Patelis, Alex D, 1997. "Stock Return Predictability and the Role of Monetary Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(5), pages 1951-1972, December.
    40. Falko Fecht & Hans-Peter Grüner & Philipp Hartmann & Marco Lo Duca, 2009. "Financial Globalization and Stability," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & David S Hoelscher & George G Kaufman (ed.), Globalization And Systemic Risk, chapter 5, pages 53-83, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    41. Lopez-Salido, David & Nelson, Edward, 2010. "Postwar Financial Crises and Economic Recoveries in the United States," MPRA Paper 98502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    43. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:47:y:2009:i::p:977-996 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Koop, Gary & Leon-Gonzalez, Roberto & Strachan, Rodney W., 2009. "On the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1017, April.
    45. Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1995. "Discount rate changes and security returns in the U.S., 1962-1991," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-95, April.
    46. Claudio Borio & William Nelson, 2008. "Monetary operations and the financial turmoil," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    47. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.
    48. Korobilis, Dimitris & Gilmartin, Michelle, 2010. "The dynamic effects of U.S. monetary policy on state unemployment," MPRA Paper 27596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    49. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    50. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    51. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "How Central Should the Central Bank Be?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-133, March.
    52. Jason L. Saving, 2006. "Integration and globalization: the European bellweather," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(may), pages 1-8.
    53. repec:wvu:wpaper:09-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kazi, Irfan Akbar & Wagan, Hakimzadi & Akbar, Farhan, 2013. "The changing international transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Is there evidence of contagion effect on OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 90-116.
    2. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher, 2009. "Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(6), pages 739-759, December.
    3. Angela Abbate & Sandra Eickmeier & Wolfgang Lemke & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time‐Varying FAVAR," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 573-601, June.
    4. Nave, Juan M. & Ruiz, Javier, 2015. "Risk aversion and monetary policy in a global context," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 14-35.
    5. Hummaira Jabeen, 2022. "Monetary Policy Shock Transmission in Emerging Markets," Journal of Policy Research (JPR), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 8(4), pages 379-390, December.
    6. John Ammer & Clara Vega & Jon Wongswan, 2010. "International Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from Stock Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 179-198, September.
    7. Abdul Karim, Zulkefly & Zaidi, Mohd Azlan Shah & Karim, Bakri, 2011. "Does Firm-Level Equity Return Respond to Domestic and International Monetary Policy Shocks? A Panel Data Study of Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 45, pages 21-31.
    8. Eickmeier, Sandra & Hofmann, Boris, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Housing Booms, And Financial (Im)Balances," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 830-860, June.
    9. Zulkefly Abdul Karim & Mohd Azlan Shah Zaidi, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Firm Size and Equity Returns in An Emerging Market: Panel Evidence of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 11(2), pages 29-55.
    10. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2013. "Monetary policy shocks and financial conditions: A Monte Carlo experiment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 282-303.
    11. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 49153, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    13. Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Equity prices and financial globalization," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 49-57.
    14. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2015. "Asymmetries on Closed End Country Funds Premium and Monetary Policy Announcements: An Approach Trough the Perspective of Foreign Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 65(3-4), pages 29-65, july-Dece.
    15. Ellis B. Heath & Seth J. Kopchak, 2015. "The Response of the Mexican Equity Market to US Monetary Surprises," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 14(2), pages 87-111, August.
    16. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Nisticò, Salvatore, 2010. "Stock market conditions and monetary policy in a DSGE model for the U.S," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1700-1731, September.
    17. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    18. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 198-212.
    19. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Leitemo, Kai, 2009. "Identifying the interdependence between US monetary policy and the stock market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 275-282, March.
    20. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.