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Ein SIRD-Modell zur Infektionsdynamik mit endogener Behandlungskapazität und Lehren für Corona-Statistiken

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  • Tödter, Karl-Heinz

Abstract

Mit einem um die Behandlungskapazität des Gesundheitssystems erweiterten epidemiologischen SIRD-Modell werden Mechanismen und Dynamik einer Virusepidemie wie Corona anhand von stilisierten politischen Reaktionsmustern (Ignore, Shutdown, Ignore-Shutdown-Relax) simuliert. Ferner werden aus dem Modell Lehren für die statistische Analyse von Corona gezogen, wie die Aussagekraft publizierter Verdopplungszeiten und Reproduktionszahlen. Die Dunkelziffer unbestätigter Fälle und die im Epidemieverlauf variable Genauigkeit von medizinischen Infektionstests werden diskutiert. Zur Messung der medizinischen Kosten von Corona sowie für regionale und internationale Vergleiche wird ein Schadensindex der verlorenen Lebenszeit vorgeschlagen. Zuletzt geht die Arbeit kurz auf die ökonomischen Kosten von Corona in Deutschland ein.

Suggested Citation

  • Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2020. "Ein SIRD-Modell zur Infektionsdynamik mit endogener Behandlungskapazität und Lehren für Corona-Statistiken," IMFS Working Paper Series 141, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:imfswp:141
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    7. Michael Greenstone & Vishan Nigam, 2020. "Does Social Distancing Matter?," Working Papers 2020-26, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Epidemiologisches Modell; Infektionsdynamik; Behandlungskapazität; Verdopplungszeit; Herdenimmunität; Reproduktionszahlen; Dunkelziffer; Schadensindex; Lebenszeitverlust; Spezifität; Sensitivität;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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