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Zu den Einflußfaktoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt bei festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen

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  • Schlote, Klaus Wilhelm

Abstract

Nach dem Börsenkrach vom Oktober 1987 war vielfach befürchtet worden, daß mit einer weltweiten Rezession ähnlich wie Anfang der 30er Jahre - zu rechnen sei. Diese Befürchtungen erwiesen sich aber als falsch. Denn in vielen Industrieländern erzielte das Bruttosozialprodukt 1988 die höchsten Zuwachsraten in dem nunmehr seit 1982 anhaltenden Aufschwung. Auch für 1989 wird erwartet, daß die gute Konjunktur - wenn auch leicht vermindert - anhält. Daß es nicht zu einer Rezession kam, wird im allgemeinen der expansiven Geldpolitik zugeschrieben. Unmittelbar nach dem Crash stellten die Zentralbanken reichlich Liquidität zur Verfügung, so daß es nicht zu Zahlungsschwierigkeiten bei Banken und Wertpapierhäusern mit negativen Folgen für ihre Funktion als Finanzvermittler (financial intermediation) wie 1929 kam (Barro, 1987, S. 466). Zwar wurde dieser Liquiditätseinschuß nach Überwindung der kritischen Phase allmählich neutralisiert, aber die Geldpolitik blieb auch 1988 in vielen Ländern eher expansiv. Die Aktienkurse fielen nicht weiter und erholten sich im Verlauf von 1988, obschon sie im allgemeinen noch ein gutes Stück von dem Niveau vor dem Crash entfernt sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Schlote, Klaus Wilhelm, 1989. "Zu den Einflußfaktoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt bei festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Kiel Working Papers 363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:363
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