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Economic Forces in the London Stock Market

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  • Beenstock, Michael
  • Chan, Kam-Fai

Abstract

Empirical tests of APT have relied on factor analysis to estimate the risk factors. Here the authors propose a diff erent two-stage iterative methodology that relates risk factors to ex plicit economic variables. In the first stage, portfolio returns are regressed over time against these variables. In the second stage, a c ross-section regression is run across portfolios obtained in the firs t stage. The method is applied to 76 portfolios constructed from 760 securities traded on the London Stock Exchange between October 1977 a nd December 1983. Although experimental, four risk factors are identi fied: inflation, money supply, raw material prices, and interest rate s. Copyright 1988 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Beenstock, Michael & Chan, Kam-Fai, 1988. "Economic Forces in the London Stock Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 50(1), pages 27-39, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:50:y:1988:i:1:p:27-39
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    Cited by:

    1. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Fundamental Share Prices and Aggregate Real Output," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Yao, Juan & Gao, Jiti & Alles, Lakshman, 2005. "Dynamic investigation into the predictability of Australian industrial stock returns: Using financial and economic information," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 225-245, March.
    3. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Financial Deregulation and the Relationship Between the Economy and the Share Market in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Kim Hiang Liow & James R. Webb, 2009. "Common factors in international securitized real estate markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(2), pages 80-89, April.
    5. N. Groenewold, 2000. "The Sensitivity of Tests of Asset Pricing Models to the IID-normal Assumptions: Contemporaneous evidence from the US and UK stock markets," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-06, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    6. Yunus, Nafeesa, 2023. "Long-run and short-run impact of the U.S. economy on stock, bond and housing markets: An evaluation of U.S. and six major economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 211-232.
    7. Erdinc Altay, 2003. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Factors on Asset Returns: A Comparative Analysis of the German and the Turkish Stock Markets in an APT Framework," Finance 0307006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Fraser, Patricia, 2001. "Tests of asset-pricing models: how important is the iid-normal assumption?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 427-449, September.
    9. Nadeem Iqbal & Sajid Rahman Khattak & Muhammad Arif Khattak, 2013. "Relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and KSE-100 Index: Evidence from Pakistan," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(4), pages 101-105, December.
    10. Schlote, Klaus Wilhelm, 1989. "Zu den Einflußfaktoren am deutschen Aktienmarkt bei festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen," Kiel Working Papers 363, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Morelli, David, 2002. "The relationship between conditional stock market volatility and conditional macroeconomic volatility: Empirical evidence based on UK data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-110.
    12. Ladrón de Guevara Cortés Rogelio & Torra Porras Salvador, 2014. "Estimation of the underlying structure of systematic risk with the use of principal component analysis and factor analysis," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 59(3), pages 197-234, julio-sep.
    13. Kuwornu, John K.M., 2012. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(2), pages 1-12, June.
    14. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2013. "A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Model of the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Stock Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Nigerian Stock Market," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 38-51, October.
    15. Lawrence Leger & Vitor Leone, 2008. "Changes in the risk structure of stock returns: Consumer Confidence and the dotcom bubble," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 228-244, August.
    16. Priestley, Richard, 1996. "The arbitrage pricing theory, macroeconomic and financial factors, and expectations generating processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 869-890, June.
    17. Riza Erdugan & Nada Kulendran & Riccardo Natoli, 2019. "Incorporating financial market volatility to improve forecasts of directional changes in Australian share market returns," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(4), pages 417-445, December.
    18. Groenewold, Nicolaas & Fraser, Patricia, 2002. "Violation of the iid-normal assumption: Effects on tests of asset-pricing models using Australian data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 491-510.
    19. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 651-661.
    20. Abbas Ghulam & Bhowmik Roni & Koju Laxmi & Wang Shouyang, 2017. "Cointegration and Causality Relationship Between Stock Market, Money Market and Foreign Exchange Market in Pakistan," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, February.
    21. Arshad Hasan & M. Tariq Javed, 2009. "An Empirical Investigation of the Causal Relationship among Monetary Variables and Equity Market Returns," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 115-137, Jan-Jun.
    22. Azeez, A.A. & Yonezawa, Yasuhiro, 2006. "Macroeconomic factors and the empirical content of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the Japanese stock market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 568-591, December.
    23. Padrón, Yaiza García & Boza, Juan García, 2006. "Which are the Risk Factors in the Pricing of Personal Pension in Spain?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.

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