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Experiences in macroeconomic forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1976-1987

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  • Langfeldt, Enno
  • Trapp, Peter

Abstract

There have always been fluctuations of production, employment, and prices in economic history. A lot of strenuous work and intellectual efforts have been put into the study of these fluctuations. Huge amounts of time series data have been collected and indicators have been compiled to determine cyclical regularities and to provide information on the cycle (see for example Burns and Mitchell, 1946). And many attempts have been made to explain the forces behind the ups and downs of economic activity (see Zarnowitz, 1985). Whereas originally business cycle research was mainly directed at understanding the fluctuations, research objectives became more practical after the shock of the Great Depression. The experience of the strong and protracted economic downturn enhanced the call for a more active role of the government in supporting economic growth and in maintaining a high level' of employment. Keynes1 General Theory (1936) delivered the theoretical basis for this policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Langfeldt, Enno & Trapp, Peter, 1988. "Experiences in macroeconomic forecasting in the Federal Republic of Germany, 1976-1987," Kiel Working Papers 331, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:331
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, January.
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    1. Marina Riem, 2017. "Essays on the Behavior of Firms and Politicians," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 73, March.
    2. Christoph Schinke, 2016. "Wealth and Politics: Studies on Inter Vivos Transfers and Partisan Effects," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 67, March.
    3. Ha Quyen Ngo & Niklas Potrafke & Marina Riem & Christoph Schinke, 2018. "Ideology and Dissent among Economists: The Joint Economic Forecast of German Economic Research Institutes," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 135-152, January.

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