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Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process

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  • Delzeit, Ruth
  • Heimann, Tobias
  • Schünemann, Franziska
  • Söder, Mareike

Abstract

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable transition towards a sustainable bioeconomy. To explore potential outcomes of bioeconomy strategies assuming different future pathways, a scenario analysis is a tool to inform decision-makers about policy impacts and trade-offs. The inter- and transdisciplinary research project 'BioNex - The future of the biomass nexus' is the first project to develop bioeconomy scenarios together with stakeholders from politics, industry, and civil society in an iterative co-design process. As a result, three storylines describing diverging potential global futures are developed and quantified: Towards sustainability, business as usual, and towards resource depletion. The futures are driven by different assumptions on climate policy, cropland expansion, productivity growth in agriculture, prices of fossil energy, and consumption behaviour. Additionally, in the co-design process, three bioeconomy policies are developed: policy as usual, stronger development of the bioeconomy, and no policies. Besides presenting the results of the stakeholder workshops, this paper evaluates the strengths and shortcomings of a stakeholder approach in terms of policy-oriented research. According to the experience made within this study, it provides valuable insights for researchers and funding authorities they can use to optimise the employment of stakeholder-based research approaches.

Suggested Citation

  • Delzeit, Ruth & Heimann, Tobias & Schünemann, Franziska & Söder, Mareike, 2021. "Scenarios for an impact assessment of global bioeconomy strategies: Results from a co-design process," Kiel Working Papers 2188, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Florian Zabel & Ruth Delzeit & Julia M. Schneider & Ralf Seppelt & Wolfram Mauser & Tomáš Václavík, 2019. "Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. World Bank, 2017. "The Sunken Billions Revisited," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 24056.
    4. Delzeit, Ruth & Klepper, Gernot & Zabel, Florian & Mauser, Wolfram, 2018. "Global economic–biophysical assessment of midterm scenarios for agricultural markets—biofuel policies, dietary patterns, cropland expansion, and productivity growth," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 226014, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Wolfram Mauser & Gernot Klepper & Florian Zabel & Ruth Delzeit & Tobias Hank & Birgitta Putzenlechner & Alvaro Calzadilla, 2015. "Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Heimann, Tobias, 2019. "Bioeconomy and SDGs: Does the Bioeconomy Support the Achievement of the SDGs?," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 225998, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Mathijs Vliet & Kasper Kok, 2015. "Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 43-74, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Argueyrolles, Robin & Delzeit, Ruth, 2022. "The interconnections between Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms and biofuels," Conference papers 333492, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-design; scenario analysis; bioeconomy; modelling framework;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods

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