IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/2184.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers

Author

Listed:
  • Lechthaler, Wolfgang
  • Tesfaselassie, Mewael F.

Abstract

We analyze the effects of government spending in a New-Keynesian model with search and matching frictions featuring endogenous growth through learning-by-doing and skill loss from long-term unemployment. We show that medium-run and long-run output and unemployment multipliers are much larger compared to the standard model that abstracts from endogenous growth and skill loss. In our model the aggregate effect of a temporary fiscal stimulus is amplified via the skill loss channel through lower training costs. Via the learning-by-doing channel, it leads to hysteresis in human capital accumulation and thereby output. These results hold for alternative forms of fiscal financing (lump-sum tax, distortionary tax and government debt) as well as alternative labor market institutions (US and Europe).

Suggested Citation

  • Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2021. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers," Kiel Working Papers 2184, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2184
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/234223/1/1758329181.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    2. Leeper, Eric M. & Plante, Michael & Traum, Nora, 2010. "Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 304-321, June.
    3. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Stadler, George W, 1990. "Business Cycle Models with Endogenous Technology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 763-778, September.
    5. Florin O. Bilbiie, 2011. "Nonseparable Preferences, Frisch Labor Supply, and the Consumption Multiplier of Government Spending: One Solution to a Fiscal Policy Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 221-251, February.
    6. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 483-499.
    7. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    8. Alessia Campolmi & Ester Faia & Roland Winkler, 2011. "Fiscal Calculus in a New Keynesian Model with Labor Market Frictions," MNB Working Papers 2011/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
    10. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    11. Carl E. Walsh, 2005. "Labor Market Search, Sticky Prices, and Interest Rate Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(4), pages 829-849, October.
    12. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    13. Sushant Acharya & Julien Bengui & Keshav Dogra & Shu Lin Wee, 2022. "Slow Recoveries and Unemployment Traps: Monetary Policy in a Time of Hysteresis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(646), pages 2007-2047.
    14. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    15. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Hysteresis and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-53.
    16. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    17. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, April.
    18. Yongsung Chang & Joao F. Gomes & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Learning-by-Doing as a Propagation Mechanism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1498-1520, December.
    19. Larry E. Jones & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ennio Stacchetti, 1999. "Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 7063, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Sebastian Gechert & Gustav Horn & Christoph Paetz, 2019. "Long‐term Effects of Fiscal Stimulus and Austerity in Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(3), pages 647-666, June.
    21. Campolmi Alessia & Faia Ester & Winkler Roland, 2011. "Fiscal Calculus and the Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-27, December.
    22. Julen Esteban-Pretel & Elisa Faraglia, 2010. "Monetary Shocks in a Model with Skill Loss," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1235-1265, October.
    23. Olivier J. Blanchard, 2017. "Should we Get rid of the Natural Rate Hypothesis?," NBER Working Papers 24057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Valerie Cerra & Antonio Fatás & Sweta C. Saxena, 2023. "Hysteresis and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 181-225, March.
    25. David M. Arseneau & Sanjay K. Chugh, 2012. "Tax Smoothing in Frictional Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(5), pages 926-985.
    26. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    27. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Aggregate demand and Long-Run Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(2), pages 189-252.
    28. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2023. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2187-2213, December.
    29. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mewael F. Tesfaselassie, 2023. "Endogenous Growth, Skill Obsolescence, and Output Hysteresis in a New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2187-2213, December.
    2. Andrea Tafuro, 2015. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Employment: an Analysis of the Aggregate Evidence," Working Papers 2015: 03, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    3. Kuo Chun-Hung & Miyamoto Hiroaki, 2019. "Fiscal stimulus and unemployment dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Kuo, Chun-Hung & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2015. "Fiscal stimuli in the form of job creation subsidies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 267-284.
    5. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian & Nordmeier, Daniela, 2016. "Revisiting the matching function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-374.
    6. Stähler, Nikolai & Thomas, Carlos, 2012. "FiMod — A DSGE model for fiscal policy simulations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 239-261.
    7. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    8. Dossche, Maarten & Lewis, Vivien & Poilly, Céline, 2014. "Employment, hours and optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1713, European Central Bank.
    9. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2016. "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1197-1214, November.
    10. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2011. "A Pitfall with DSGE–Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," 2011 Meeting Papers 136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, "undated". "Mismatch Shocks and Unemployment During the Great Recession," School of Economics Working Papers 2015-14, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    12. Michaillat, Pascal, 2012. "A theory of countercyclical government-consumption multiplier," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 54277, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
    14. Tervala, Juha & Watson, Timothy, 2022. "Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    15. Patrick F?ve & Julien Matheron & Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, 2013. "A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 141-178, October.
    16. Di Domenico, Lorenzo & Gahn, Santiago José & Romaniello, Davide, 2024. "Testing the Waters of Positive Hysteresis: The Effects of Autonomous Demand Shocks on Inflation, Accumulation, and Labor in the US Economy," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP64, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    17. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    18. Tafuro, Andrea, 2023. "Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    19. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    20. Matthias S. Hertweck & Vivien Lewis & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Going the Extra Mile: Effort by Workers and Job‐Seekers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2099-2127, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default; debt restructuring; international financial architecture; creditor Coordination;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2184. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.