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A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers

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  • Fève, Patrick
  • Matheron, Julien
  • Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume

Abstract

This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium context. We stress a potential source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability between private consumption and government expenditures and endogenous government expenditures. Due to crossequation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results prove to be robust to a number of perturbations.

Suggested Citation

  • Fève, Patrick & Matheron, Julien & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2012. "A Pitfall with DSGE-Based, Estimated, Government Spending Multipliers," TSE Working Papers 12-289, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25755
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending rules; DSGE models; Edgeworth complementarity/substitutability; Multiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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