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Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks

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  • Rokon Bhuiyan
  • Robert F. Lucas

Abstract

. We employ the identification scheme of Kahn, Kandel and Sarig (2002) to analyse the impact of Canadian monetary policy on ex ante real interest rates and inflationary expectations. First, we decompose nominal interest rates into ex ante real rates and inflationary expectations using the methodology of Blanchard and Quah (1989). Then we estimate a recursive VAR model with innovations in a monetary aggregate and the overnight target interest rate as alternative measures of monetary policy shocks. We find that a negative policy shock raises both nominal and ex ante real interest rates, lowers inflationary expectations and real industrial output, and appreciates the Canadian dollar. Les auteurs utilisent le schème d'identification de Kahn, Kandel et Sarif (2002) pour analyser les impacts de la politique monétaire canadienne sur les taux d'intérêt réels ex ante et sur les anticipations d'inflation. D'abord, ils décomposent les taux d'intérêt nominaux entre taux d'intérêt réel ex ante et anticipation d'inflation en utilisant la méthodologie de Blanchard et Quah (1989). Ensuite, ils calibrent un modèle VAR récursif avec des innovations dans l'agrégat monétaire et le taux directeur en tant que mesures alternatives des chocs dans la politique monétaire. On découvre qu'un choc monétaire négatif tend à accroître et le taux d'intérêt nominal et le taux réel ex ante, à réduire les anticipations d'inflation et le produit industriel réel, et à faire s'apprécier le dollar.

Suggested Citation

  • Rokon Bhuiyan & Robert F. Lucas, 2007. "Real and nominal effects of monetary policy shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 679-702, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:40:y:2007:i:2:p:679-702
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2966.2007.00426.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    3. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    5. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 231-272, April.
    6. Gottschalk, Jan, 2001. "Measuring Expected Inflation and the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate in the Euro Area Using Structural Vector Autoregressions," Kiel Working Papers 1067, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Kahn, Michael & Kandel, Shmuel & Sarig, Oded, 2002. "Real and nominal effects of central bank monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1493-1519, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mala Raghavan & George Athanasopoulos & Param Silvapulle, 2016. "Canadian monetary policy analysis using a structural VARMA model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(1), pages 347-373, February.
    2. Wong, Edwin & Lucia, Kathlyn & Price, Stephanie & Startz, Richard, 2011. "The changing relation between the Canadian and U.S. yield curves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 965-981, October.
    3. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(3), pages 1037-1061, August.
    4. Kevin Moran & Dalibor Stevanovic & Stephane Surprenant, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised Apr 2024.
    5. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2014. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in the USA: A Forecast-Augmented VAR Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(3-4), pages 139-152, December.
    6. T. Philipp Dybowski & Max Hanisch & Bernd Kempa, 2018. "The role of the exchange rate in Canadian monetary policy: evidence from a TVP-BVAR model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 471-494, September.
    7. Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven W. Sumner & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2009. "Bank loan portfolios and the Canadian monetary transmission mechanism," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 1150-1175, August.
    8. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2013. "Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1155-1169, June.
    9. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Functional Shocks to Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates and Their Macroeconomic Effects," CESifo Working Paper Series 10656, CESifo.
    10. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1037-1061, August.

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