IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/87.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Weltwirtschaft im Frühjahr 2022 - Verlangsamte Expansion bei hoher Inflation
[World Economy in Spring 2022 - Slower growth amid higher inflation]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Reents, Jan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Der Krieg in der Ukraine belastet die Weltwirtschaft in einer Phase, in der die Inflation bereits stark gestiegen ist und die US-Notenbank das Ende der extrem expansiven Geldpolitik eingeläutet hat. Höhere Rohstoffpreise treiben die Inflation zusätzlich an und führen zusammen mit den Auswirkungen der Sanktionen auf Transportzeiten und Produktionsketten voraussichtlich dazu, dass Lieferengpässe die Produktion in den kommenden Monaten wieder stärker hemmen werden. Wir haben unsere Prognose für die Expansion der Weltwirtschaft deutlich abgesenkt, um 1 Prozentpunkt in diesem und um 0,4 Prozentpunkte im nächsten Jahr. Gleichwohl steigt die globale Produktion (auf der Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten) mit Raten von 3,5 bzw. 3,6 Prozent in beiden Jahren noch etwas stärker als im längerfristigen Trend. Denn die konjunkturellen Auftriebskräfte sind beträchtlich, da die Corona-Pandemie die Weltwirtschaft in immer geringerem Maße beeinträchtigen wird. Covid-19 bleibt aber neben den Unwägbarkeiten im Zusammenhang mit dem Ukrainekonflikt ein gewichtiges Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft, vor allem wenn Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Omikron-Variante die Produktion in China empfindlich beeinträchtigen sollten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kooths, Stefan & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2022. "Weltwirtschaft im Frühjahr 2022 - Verlangsamte Expansion bei hoher Inflation [World Economy in Spring 2022 - Slower growth amid higher inflation]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 87, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/251905/1/KKB-87-2022-Q1-Welt-DE.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    2. Drezner,Daniel W., 1999. "The Sanctions Paradox," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521644150.
    3. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    4. Drezner,Daniel W., 1999. "The Sanctions Paradox," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521643320.
    5. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    6. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:138 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2015. "The impact of UN and US economic sanctions on GDP growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 110-125.
    8. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 0. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    9. Lenoel, Cyrille & Macqueen, Rory & Mortimer-Lee, Paul & Patel, Urvish & Whyte, Kemar, 2022. "Covid-19 leaves inflation in its wake," National Institute UK Economic Outlook, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 0(1 Winter), pages 5-28.
    10. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    11. Kamin, Katrin, 2022. "Bilateral trade and conflict heterogeneity: The impact of conflict on trade revisited," Kiel Working Papers 2222, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    2. Joakim Gullstrand, 2020. "What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2315-2342, September.
    3. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Ohyun Kwon & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "The Extraterritorial Effects of Sanctions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9578, CESifo.
    6. Nguyen, Trung Thanh & Do, Manh Hung, 2021. "Impact of economic sanctions and counter-sanctions on the Russian Federation’s trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 267-278.
    7. Tran Manh Ha & Doan Ngoc Thang, 2023. "Economic sanction and global sourcing complexity: A cross‐country analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 1017-1050, April.
    8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2019. "On the effects of sanctions on trade and welfare: New evidence based on structural gravity and a new database," Kiel Working Papers 2131, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sonali Chowdhry & Julian Hinz & Katrin Kamin, 2022. "Brothers in arms: The value of coalitions in sanctions regimes," RSCAS Working Papers 2022/62, European University Institute.
    11. Ina C. Jäkel & Søren Østervig & Erdal Yalcin, 2024. "The effects of heterogeneous sanctions on exporting firms: Evidence from Denmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 161-189, February.
    12. Tibor Besedeš & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2024. "Smart or smash? The effect of financial sanctions on trade in goods and services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 223-251, February.
    13. Chen, Yin E. & Fu, Qiang & Zhao, Xinxin & Yuan, Xuemei & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2019. "International sanctions’ impact on energy efficiency in target states," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-34.
    14. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    15. Oechslin, Manuel, 2014. "Targeting autocrats: Economic sanctions and regime change," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 24-40.
    16. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.
    17. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. David Lektzian & Glen Biglaiser, 2014. "The effect of foreign direct investment on the use and success of US sanctions," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 70-93, February.
    19. Jamal Ibrahim Haidar, 2017. "Sanctions and export deflection: evidence from Iran," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 319-355.
    20. Brzoska Michael, 2008. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Arms Embargoes," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-34, July.
    21. Carlo de Bassa & Edoardo Grillo & Francesco Passarelli, 2021. "Sanctions and incentives to repudiate external debt," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 33(2), pages 198-224, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fortgeschrittene Volkswirtschaften; Schwellenländer; Geldpolitik; advanced economies; emerging economies; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.