IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/40.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Fiedler, Salomon
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Wirtschaft im Euroraum hat Tritt gefasst und expandiert lebhaft. Einen zusätzlichen Schub erhielt die Konjunktur seit Ende des Jahres 2016 von der Belebung des weltwirtschaftlichen Umfelds. Frühindikatoren deuten auf eine Fortsetzung der kräftigen Expansion hin, wobei die Konjunktur weiter durch niedrige Zinsen und eine leicht expansive Finanzpolitik unterstützt wird. Im laufenden Jahr dürfte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 2,4 Prozent expandieren, im kommenden Jahr wird sich die Expansionsrate wohl nur leicht auf 2,1 Prozent verringern. Potenzialschätzungen für den Euroraum deuten inzwischen darauf hin, dass die Normalauslastung der Produktionskapazitäten bereits überschritten ist. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist weiter rückläufig, und in einzelnen Ländern dürfte es zunehmende Anspannungen am Arbeitsmarkt geben. Angesichts der guten Konjunktur wird auch die Verbraucherpreisinflation allmählich anziehen und im Jahr 2019 bei 1,6 Prozent liegen, womit sie sich langsam dem Zielbereich der Europäischen Zentralbank annähert.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2018. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2018 - Wirtschaft im Euroraum überschreitet Normalauslastung," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:40
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/209452/1/kkb_40_2018-q1_euroraum.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2017. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2017 - Weltwirtschaft weiter im Aufschwung [World Economy Winter 2017 - World economic upswing continues]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 37, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Pietro Dallari & Mr. Tigran Poghosyan, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers in the Euro Area: Letting the Data Speak," IMF Working Papers 2017/241, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 295-306, September.
    5. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP-growth in some European Countries and the United States," CPB Memorandum 203.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Höpner, Martin & Baccaro, Lucio, 2022. "Das deutsche Wachstumsmodell, 1991-2019," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    2. Jan Hagemejer & Jakub Mućk, 2018. "Unraveling the economic performance of the CEEC countries: the role of exports and global value chains," Working Papers 2018-07, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2008. "Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 295-306, September.
    4. Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Verwendungs- und produktionsseitige Zerlegung der Jahresverlaufsrate," Kiel Insight 2019.1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Clemens Fuest & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Andreas Peichl & Magnus Reif & Rad, 2017. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2017–2019: Deutsche Wirtschaft auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(24), pages 28-81, December.
    6. Bofinger, Peter & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Wieland, Volker, 2018. "Vor wichtigen wirtschaftspolitischen Weichenstellungen. Jahresgutachten 2018/19 [Setting the Right Course for Economic Policy. Annual Report 2018/19]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201819.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2019 - Euroraum: Konjunktur im Kielwasser des Welthandels [Euro Area Spring 2019 - Euro area economy slows further]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Mayer, Jörg, 2012. "Global rebalancing: Effects on trade and employment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 627-642.
    9. Aaron George Grech & Noel Rapa, 2019. "A reassessment of external demand’s contribution to Malta’s economic growth," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    10. Marco Del Negro & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2020. "What's Up with the Phillips Curve?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 301-373.
    11. Abdoulaye Millogo, 2020. "Hysteresis Effects and Macroeconomics Gains from Unconventional Monetary Policies Stabilization," Cahiers de recherche 20-12, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Fontanari, Claudia & Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Romaniello, Davide, 2024. "A composite index for workers’ bargaining power and the inflation rate in the United States, 1960–2018," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 682-698.
    15. Narek Ghazaryan, 2014. "Short Term Forecasting System of Private Demand Components in Armenia," Working Papers 3, Central Bank of Armenia, revised Dec 2015.
    16. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Chansik Yoon, 2021. "International Fiscal-Financial Spillovers:the Effect of Fiscal Shocks on Cross-Border Bank Lending," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 259-290, April.
    17. Abele, Christian & Bénassy-Quéré, Agnès & Fontagné, Lionel, 2024. "The impact of financial tightening on firm productivity: Maturity matters," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.
    19. Francesco Saraceno, 2022. "Here to Stay? The Return of Fiscal Policy and Challenges for the EU Governance," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 13(1-2).
    20. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz & Schmidt, Sebastian, 2019. "Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe's monetary union," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 22-33.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.