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Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum

Author

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Schwarzmüller, Tim

Abstract

Die Konjunktur im Euroraum ist aufwärtsgerichtet. Im Jahresschlussquartal 2014 legte das Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 0,3 Prozent zu. Die Stimmungsindikatoren deuten darauf hin, dass sich die Erholung in der ersten Jahreshälfte 2015 fortsetzt. Der Aufschwung dürfte nach und nach an Breite gewinnen, weil binnenwirtschaftliche Kräfte verstärkt zur Expansion beitragen werden. So dürfte der Euroraum nicht zuletzt von den gesunkenen Energiepreisen profitieren. Alles in allem erwarten wir, dass das Bruttoinlandsprodukt im laufenden Jahr um 1,3 Prozent zulegen wird; im Jahr 2016 dürfte die Zunahme 1,7 Prozent betragen. Ein weiteres Absinken der Inflationsrate halten wir für unwahrscheinlich, sofern nicht erneut Sondereffekte zum Tragen kommen. Gleichwohl wird der Anstieg der Verbraucherpreise im Prognosezeitraum gedämpft bleiben. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 werden die Verbraucherpreise nur stagnieren. Im darauf folgenden Jahr dürfte die Rate bei 1,1 Prozent liegen. Die Lage am Arbeitsmarkt dürfte sich im Prognosezeitraum weiter verbessern. Im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 werden voraussichtlich 11,1 Prozent der Erwerbspersonen ohne Arbeit sein; im Jahr 2016 wird sich ihr Anteil wohl auf 10,5 Prozent verringern.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Axel Dreher, 2009. "IMF conditionality: theory and evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 233-267, October.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Pirschel, Inske & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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