IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkkb/5.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur
[German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating]

Author

Listed:
  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Pirschel, Inske
  • Plödt, Martin
  • Wolters, Maik H.

Abstract

Die Aufschwungskräfte in Deutschland haben wieder Tritt gefasst. In diesem Jahr nimmt die Wirtschaftsleistung um 1,8 Prozent zu, im nächsten Jahr dürfte die Expansion mit 2,0 Prozent noch etwas stärker sein. Stimuliert wird die Konjunktur in der ersten Hälfte des Prognosezeitraums maßgeblich seitens der Konsumausgaben und der Wohnungsbauinvestitionen der privaten Haushalte. Im nächsten Jahr dürften die Unternehmensinvestitionen zur zweiten Säule des Aufschwungs erstarkt sein. Vom Außenhandel gehen indes netto keine Expansionsimpulse aus. Die Erwerbstätigkeit steigt weiter und auch die Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt wieder deutlicher. Ölpreisbedingt bleiben die Verbraucherpreise im Durchschnitt des laufenden Jahres stabil, im nächsten Jahr steigt die Inflationsrate aber wieder merklich an. Die öffentlichen Haushalte verzeichnen weiterhin schmale Überschüsse, von einer ehrgeizigen Haushaltspolitik kann trotz deutlich sinkender Bruttoschuldenstandsrelationen keine Rede sein.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Pirschel, Inske & Plödt, Martin & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland auf dem Weg in die Hochkonjunktur [German Economy Spring 2015 - German economy on the road to overheating]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/209417/1/kkb_05_2015-q1_deutschland.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Oil Shocks: Differences across Countries and Time," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2014 - Konjunktur in Deutschland springt an [German Economy Winter 2014 - German economy gains momentum]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Dominik Groll & Stefan Kooths, 2013. "Vor der Bundestagswahl: Argumente für Mindestlöhne überzeugen nicht," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 93(8), pages 545-551, August.
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Herbst 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum [Euro Area Economy Autumn 2015 - Euro Area: Moderate Recovery proceeds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2015 - Deutschland: Expansion trotzt weltwirtschaftlicher Unruhe [Robust German economy in an uncertain international environment]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 11, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    2. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather M., 2016. "How do shocks to domestic factors affect real exchange rates of Asian developing countries?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 67-85.
    4. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    5. Blaise Gnimassoun & Marc Joëts & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," Working Papers hal-04141574, HAL.
    6. Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    7. Cross, Jamie & Nguyen, Bao H., 2017. "The relationship between global oil price shocks and China's output: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 79-91.
    8. Ioannidis, Christos & Ka, Kook, 2018. "The impact of oil price shocks on the term structure of interest rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 601-620.
    9. Bataa, Erdenebat & Izzeldin, Marwan & Osborn, Denise R., 2016. "Changes in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 161-176.
    10. Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Karahan, Cenk C. & Lucey, Brian, 2022. "Oil price shocks and yield curve dynamics in emerging markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 613-623.
    11. Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, 2018. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React To Oil Price Shocks?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 666-682, April.
    12. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Oil supply shocks and economic growth in the Mediterranean," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 167-175.
    13. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2015 - Deutschland mittelfristig in der Hochkonjunktur," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 6, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    15. Gupta, Rangan & Sheng, Xin & van Eyden, Reneé & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The impact of disaggregated oil shocks on state-level real housing returns of the United States: The role of oil dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    16. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
    17. Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2015. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React to Oil Shocks?," Departmental Working Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    18. Kirsten Roach, 2014. "A Structural Analysis of Oil Price Shocks on the Jamaican Macroeconomy," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-252, July-Dece.
    19. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    20. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Konjunktur im Euroraum im Frühjahr 2015 - Moderate Erholung im Euroraum," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 4, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.