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Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2016 - Weltkonjunktur expandiert allmählich etwas stärker
[World Economy Winter 2016 - World economy is gaining traction]

Author

Listed:
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Hauber, Philipp
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft hat die konjunkturelle Talsohle im Verlauf des Jahres 2016 durchschritten. Der Anstieg der Weltproduktion, gerechnet auf Basis von Kaufkraftparitäten, wird sich in den kommenden beiden Jahren auf 3,5 Prozent bzw. 3,6 Prozent erhöhen, nach 3,1 Prozent in diesem Jahr. Damit haben wir unsere Prognose vom September nicht nennenswert verändert. Der Aufschwung in den fortgeschrittenen Volkswirtschaften wird sich in leicht verstärktem Tempo fortsetzen. Anregend wirken die insgesamt weiter expansive Geldpolitik sowie zunehmend - und nicht zuletzt in den Vereinigten Staaten - auch Impulse von der Finanzpolitik sowie eine allmähliche Beschleunigung des Lohnanstiegs. Dem steht allerdings entgegen, dass die Kaufkraft nicht weiter durch sinkende Energiekosten erhöht wird. Einen deutlichen Anstieg des Ölpreises erwarten wir trotz des OPEC-Beschlusses zur Senkung der Fördermengen nicht, da die angekündigten Produktionskürzungen voraussichtlich nicht in vollem Umfang umgesetzt werden und das Angebot am Ölmarkt noch geraume Zeit reichlich bleiben dürfte. Die wirtschaftliche Expansion in den Schwellenländern dürfte sich im Prognosezeitraum allmählich beleben, aber angesichts weiterhin relativ niedriger Rohstoffpreise und vielfach ungelöster struktureller Probleme keine große Dynamik entfalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2016 - Weltkonjunktur expandiert allmählich etwas stärker [World Economy Winter 2016 - World economy is gaining traction]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:25
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp, 2015. "Zur Entwicklung der Unternehmensverschuldung in Schwellenländern," Kiel Insight 2015.21, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    3. Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2016. "Zu Produktionspotenzial und Produktionslücke in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2016.2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp, 2016. "Zur schwachen Entwicklung der Unternehmensinvestitionen in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2016.19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin, 2016. "Zu den Ursachen der jüngsten Ölpreisentwicklungen," Kiel Insight 2016.1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin, 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2015 - Weltkonjunktur zieht allmählich an," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 3, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Italien am Scheideweg: Wachstumsschwäche erfordert weitere Reformen," Kiel Policy Brief 102, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina, 2016. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2016 - Deutsche Konjunktur auf Expansionskurs [German Economy Winter 2016 - Expansion is set to continue]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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