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Zu den Modifikationen bei der Schätzung des Produktionspotenzials

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  • Plödt, Martin

Abstract

Im Vergleich zu unserer Mittelfristprojektion vom Herbst 2016 haben wir das Verfahren, mit dem das Produktionspotenzial geschätzt wird, an mehreren Stellen modifiziert. Diese Änderungen gehen zum einen darauf zurück, dass wir der demografischen Entwicklung in Deutschland besser Rechnung tragen wollen. Zum anderen übernehmen wir die von der Europäischen Kommission jüngst vorgenommenen Änderungen bei der Bestimmung der NAWRU (Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment), einer wichtigen Eingangsgröße der Potenzialschätzung. Im Folgenden sollen die Modifikationen und ihre Auswirkung auf die Potenzialschätzung genauer erläutert werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Plödt, Martin, 2017. "Zu den Modifikationen bei der Schätzung des Produktionspotenzials," Kiel Insight 2017.9, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:20179
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Potjagailo, Galina & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Mittelfristprojektion für Deutschland im Frühjahr 2016 - Potenzialwachstum vor Zwischenhoch," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 18, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Fabrice Orlandi, 2012. "Structural unemployment and its determinants in the EU countries," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 455, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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