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Die Marktrisikoprämie des DAX nach dem Dividenden- und Gewinnwachstumsmodell von Fama/French (2002)

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  • Hachmeister, Dirk
  • Puchstein, Kerstin
  • Seidler, Patrick

Abstract

Die Marktrisikoprämie ist eine der wichtigsten Kennzahlen in der Finanzwissenschaft, da sie elementarer Bestandteil der Kapitalkostenberechnung nach dem CAPM-Modell ist. Allerdings ist die Höhe der Marktrisikoprämie auch ein Politikum, da diese am Markt nicht direkt beobachtbar ist und lediglich auf Basis verschiedener Verfahren und Zeitreihen geschätzt werden kann. Die nicht nur in der deutschen Bewertungspraxis beliebte historische Methode hat dabei den Nachteil, dass sie maßgeblich von der Wahl des zugrundeliegenden Beobachtungszeitraums und zudem von den hohen Kurssteigerungen der letzten 30 Jahre bestimmt werden. Als mögliche Alternative wird im Folgenden ein Ansatz von Fama und French auf den DAX übertragen, bei dem die Marktrisikoprämie mithilfe fundamentaler Unternehmensdaten geschätzt wird. Das Dividenden- und das Gewinnwachstumsmodell nach Fama und French schätzt die erwartete Marktrisikoprämie auf Basis der historisch beobachteten Dividendenrendite sowie des Dividenden- bzw. Gewinnwachstums der einzelnen im Marktindex erfassten Unternehmen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hachmeister, Dirk & Puchstein, Kerstin & Seidler, Patrick, 2016. "Die Marktrisikoprämie des DAX nach dem Dividenden- und Gewinnwachstumsmodell von Fama/French (2002)," Hohenheimer Schriften: Rechnungswesen - Steuern - Wirtschaftsprüfung 2016-01, University of Hohenheim, Department of Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohrsw:201601
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The Equity Premium: 100 Years of Empirical Evidence from the UK," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0711, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
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    Keywords

    Unternehmensbewertung; Steuerbemessungsfunktion; Fair Market Value; Erbschaftsteuer; Rechtsprechung; USA;
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