IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ebg/iesewp/d-0585.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

La prima de riesgo del mercado (market risk premium)

Author

Listed:
  • Fernandez, Pablo

    (IESE Business School)

Abstract

En este documento se resalta que el término "prima de riesgo de mercado" (market risk premium) se utiliza para definir tres conceptos distintos: a) la rentabilidad incremental que un inversor exige a las acciones por encima de la renta fija sin riesgo (prima de riesgo del mercado, required market risk premium o market risk premium en sentido estricto); b) la diferencia entre la rentabilidad histórica de la bolsa (de un índice bursátil) y la rentabilidad histórica de la renta fija (rentabilidad diferencial o historical market risk premium), y c) el valor esperado de la diferencia entre la rentabilidad futura de la bolsa y la rentabilidad futura de la renta fija (expectativa de la rentabilidad diferencial o expected market risk premium). Muchos autores y muchos profesionales de las finanzas suponen que esta expectativa es igual a la rentabilidad diferencial y a la prima de riesgo del mercado. Posteriormente se analizan los métodos propuestos por la literatura financiera para medirlo y se analiza la rentabilidad diferencial histórica de España y Estados Unidos. La conclusión principal del artículo es que es imposible determinar la prima de riesgo "del mercado", porque tal número no existe debido a las heterogéneas expectativas de los inversores.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez, Pablo, 2005. "La prima de riesgo del mercado (market risk premium)," IESE Research Papers D/585, IESE Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0585
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iese.edu/research/pdfs/DI-0585.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
    2. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
    3. Welch, Ivo, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(4), pages 501-537, October.
    4. Mas-Colell, Andreu & Whinston, Michael D. & Green, Jerry R., 1995. "Microeconomic Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195102680.
    5. Daniel C. Indro & Wayne Y. Lee, 1997. "Biases in Arithmetic and Geometric Averages as Estimates of Long-Run Expected Returns and Risk Premia," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 26(4), Winter.
    6. James Claus & Jacob Thomas, 2001. "Equity Premia as Low as Three Percent? Evidence from Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Domestic and International Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1629-1666, October.
    7. Haitao Li & Yuewu Xu, 2002. "Survival Bias and the Equity Premium Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1981-1995, October.
    8. Philippe Jorion & William N. Goetzmann, 1999. "Global Stock Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 953-980, June.
    9. Roger G. Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2003. "Long-Run Stock Returns: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm354, Yale School of Management.
    10. Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Elroy Dimson & Paul Marsh & Mike Staunton, 2003. "Global Evidence On The Equity Risk Premium," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 15(4), pages 27-38, September.
    12. Robert D. Arnott & Peter L. Bernstein, 2002. "What Risk Premium Is “Normal”?," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 64-85, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fernandez, Pablo & Aguirreamalloa, Javier & Liechtenstein, Heinrich, 2009. "The equity premium puzzle: High required equity premium, undervaluation and self fulfilling prophecy," IESE Research Papers D/821, IESE Business School.
    2. Roelof Salomons, 2008. "A Theoretical And Practical Perspective On The Equity Risk Premium," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 299-329, April.
    3. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Market risk premium: Required, historical and expected," IESE Research Papers D/574, IESE Business School.
    4. Rui Alpalhao & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don't know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498.
    5. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School.
    6. Prat, Georges, 2013. "Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 76-88.
    7. Fernandez, Pablo, 2008. "The equity premium in 100 textbooks," IESE Research Papers D/757, IESE Business School.
    8. van Ewijk, Casper & de Groot, Henri L.F. & Santing, A.J. (Coos), 2012. "A meta-analysis of the equity premium," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 819-830.
    9. Richard W. Kopcke & Matt Rutledge, 2004. "Stock prices and the equity premium during the recent bull and bear markets," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 63-85.
    10. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The UK Equity Premium: 1901–2004," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9‐10), pages 1496-1527, November.
    11. Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Economic growth and equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 489-503, November.
    12. Aggarwal, Raj & Goodell, John W., 2008. "Equity premia in emerging markets: National characteristics as determinants," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 389-404, October.
    13. Samih Antoine Azar, 2008. "Conditional confidence intervals for the equity premium and other rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(13), pages 1085-1089.
    14. Rochon, Mathieu & Desrosiers, Stéphanie & L’Her, Jean-François, 2004. "Révision à la baisse de la prime sur les actions au Canada," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 137-170, Mars.
    15. Holger Daske & Günther Gebhardt, 2006. "Zukunftsorientierte Bestimmung von Risikoprämien und Eigenkapitalkosten für die Unternehmensbewertung," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 530-551, June.
    16. Efstathios Avdis & Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," NBER Working Papers 19684, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Fernandez, Pablo, 2009. "Market risk premium used in 2008 by Professors: A survey with 1,400 answers," IESE Research Papers D/796, IESE Business School.
    18. Pastor, Lubos & Veronesi, Pietro, 2006. "Was there a Nasdaq bubble in the late 1990s?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 61-100, July.
    19. George M. Constantinides, 2002. "Rational Asset Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1567-1591, August.
    20. Andrew Vivian, 2007. "The UK Equity Premium: 1901-2004," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(9-10), pages 1496-1527.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    prima de riesgo de mercado; prima de riesgo de mercado histórica; prima de riesgo esperada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0585. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Noelia Romero (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ienaves.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.