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Population growth, saving, interest rates and stagnation: Discussing the Eggertsson-Mehrotra model

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  • Spahn, Peter

Abstract

Post Keynesian stagnation theory argues that slower population growth dampens consumption and investment. A New Keynesian OLG model derives an unemployment equilibrium due to a negative natural rate in a three-generations credit contract framework. Besides deleveraging or rising inequality, also a shrinking population is a triggering factor. In all cases, a saving surplus drives real interest rates down. In other OLG settings however, with bonds as stores of value, slower population growth, on the contrary, causes a lack of saving and thus rising rates. Moreover, the recent fall in market interest rates was brought about by monetary factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Spahn, Peter, 2016. "Population growth, saving, interest rates and stagnation: Discussing the Eggertsson-Mehrotra model," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 04-2016, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:hohdps:042016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overlapping generations; zero lower bound; deflation equilibrium; natural versus market interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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