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Zinsersparnisse des Bundes im Zeitraum 2009 - 06/2015 und als Szenariobetrachtung bis 2019

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  • Ehrhold, Frank
  • Rahausen, Christian

Abstract

Ausgangspunkt der Überlegungen sind die seit Bestehen der Banken- und Staatsschuldenkrise deutlich gesunkenen Refinanzierungszinssätze auf emittierte Bundeswertpapiere. Es wird darauf hingewiesen, dass das Zusammenwirken verschiedener Ursachen für die daraus erzielten Ersparnisse verantwortlich ist. Zur Berechnung dieser wurde als Benchmark der durchschnittliche Zins des Zeitraumes 1999 bis 2008 herangezogen. In jedem Fall werden die einzelnen Wertpapierarten individuell betrachtet. Hinsichtlich der Datengrundlage werden Veröffentlichungen der Bundesfinanzagentur und Bundesbank verwendet. Für alle Emissionen seit 2009 fällt so über deren gesamte Laufzeit eine geringere Zinslast in Höhe von 170 Mrd. € an - eine Summe, die fast 15% des gesamten Bundesschuldenstand entspricht. Da nicht von einem sofortigen Ende der Niedrigzinsen auszugehen ist, werden daran anknüpfend in der Szenariobetrachtung, basierend auf historischen Volatilitäten, verschiedene Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten dargestellt. In Abhängigkeit der Rückkehr zum "Normal-Niveau" können leicht weitere Ersparnisse im dreistelligen Milliardenbereich anfallen. Das Ergebnis ist als Baustein zu verstehen, ein Urteil über den krisenbedingten Profit/Verlust auf öffentlicher Ebene treffen zu können.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehrhold, Frank & Rahausen, Christian, 2015. "Zinsersparnisse des Bundes im Zeitraum 2009 - 06/2015 und als Szenariobetrachtung bis 2019," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 02/2015, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:grewdp:022015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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