IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fubsbe/20083.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Lucas Paradox and the quality of institutions: then and now

Author

Listed:
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Steger, Thomas M.

Abstract

In the first era of financial globalization (1880-1914), global capital market integration led to substantial net capital movements from rich to poor economies. The historical experience stands in contrast to the contemporary globalization where gross capital mobility is equally high, but did not incite a substantial transfer of savings from rich to poor economies. Using data for the historical and modern periods we extend Lucas' (1990) original model and show that differences in institutional quality between rich and poor countries can account for the sharply divergent patterns of international capital movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Schularick, Moritz & Steger, Thomas M., 2008. "The Lucas Paradox and the quality of institutions: then and now," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20083
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/28069/1/56007509X.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Antonio Ciccone & Giovanni Peri, 2006. "Identifying Human-Capital Externalities: Theory with Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(2), pages 381-412.
    2. Kris James Mitchener & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2004. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," NBER Working Papers 10729, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
    5. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2006. "What Determines Immigration's Impact? Comparing Two Global Centuries," NBER Working Papers 12414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Andrei Shleifer, 2003. "Will the Sovereign Debt Market Survive?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 85-90, May.
    7. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-563, July.
    8. Moritz Schularick, 2006. "A tale of two 'globalizations': capital flows from rich to poor in two eras of global finance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 339-354.
    9. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    10. Matthew T. Jones & Maurice Obstfeld, 1997. "Saving, Investment, and Gold: A Reassessment of Historical Current Account Data," NBER Working Papers 6103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Michael A. Clemens & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "Wealth bias in the first global capital market boom, 1870-1913," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 304-337, April.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending," CEPR Discussion Papers 451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Kelly, Trish, 1998. "Ability and Willingness to Pay in the Age of Pax Britannica, 1890-1914," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 31-58, January.
    14. William N. Goetzmann & Andrey Ukhov & Ning Zhu, 2004. "China and the World Financial Markets 1870-1930:," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm9, Yale School of Management.
    15. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, November.
    16. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    17. repec:wbk:wbpubs:12426 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. World Bank, 2005. "World Development Indicators 2005," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 12425.
    19. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    20. Ferguson, Niall & Schularick, Moritz, 2006. "The Empire Effect: The Determinants of Country Risk in the First Age of Globalization, 1880–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 66(2), pages 283-312, June.
    21. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc, 2005. "Empire, Public Goods, and the Roosevelt Corollary," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 658-692, September.
    22. Richard N. Cooper, 1982. "The Gold Standard: Historical Facts and Future," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 1-56.
    23. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Schioppa, Claudio A. & Papadia, Andrea, 2015. "Foreign Debt and Secondary Markets: The Case of Interwar Germany," MPRA Paper 102863, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    2. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:3:p:590-614 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Ms. Corinne C Delechat & Mr. John Wakeman-Linn & Ms. Smita Wagh & Mr. Gustavo Ramirez, 2009. "Sub-Saharan Africa's Integration in the Global Financial Markets," IMF Working Papers 2009/114, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Andrea Papadia & Claudio A. Schioppa, 2024. "Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(6), pages 2074-2112.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Moritz Schularick & Thomas M. Steger, 2006. "Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 06/46, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    2. Moritz Schularick & Thomas M Steger, 2010. "Financial Integration, Investment, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Two Eras of Financial Globalization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 756-768, November.
    3. Meissner, Christopher M., 2014. "Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long Run," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 1033-1069, Elsevier.
    4. Moritz Schularick, 2006. "A tale of two 'globalizations': capital flows from rich to poor in two eras of global finance," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 339-354.
    5. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.
    6. Bertrand BLANCHETON (CMHE-IFReDE-GRES) & Samuel MAVEYRAUD-TRICOIRE (Université Bordeaux IV), 2006. "The indicators of international financial integration: A set of convergent measures (In French)," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2006-13, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
    7. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Mehmet Fatih Ekinci & Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Bent E. Sørensen, 2009. "Financial Integration within EU Countries: The Role of Institutions, Confidence and Trust," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 325-391, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Taylor, Alan M., 2002. "A century of current account dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 725-748, November.
    10. Michael D. Bordo & Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Core, Periphery, Exchange Rate Regimes, and Globalization," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 417-472, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6145 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Ariell Reshef & Bent E Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2010. "Why Does Capital Flow to Rich States?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 769-783, November.
    13. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    14. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "International capital mobility in the long run and the short run: can we still learn from saving-investment data?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 113-131, February.
    15. della Paolera, Gerardo & Taylor, Alan M., 2013. "Sovereign debt in Latin America, 1820-1913," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(2), pages 173-217, September.
    16. Mitchener, Kris James & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2010. "Supersanctions and sovereign debt repayment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 19-36, February.
    17. Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2002. "Globalization and Inequality: Historical Trends," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 57(01), pages 65-104, March.
    18. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fiess, Norbert, 2011. "International Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Countries: National and Global Determinants," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-03, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    19. Matthias Morys & Guillaume Daudin & Kevin H. O'Rourke, 2008. "Globalization, 1870-1914," Economics Series Working Papers 395, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6145 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6145 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2008. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries? An Empirical Investigation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 347-368, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital market integration; financial globalization; economic history;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20083. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwfubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.