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Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options

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  • Gnann, Till
  • Plötz, Patrick
  • Kühn, André
  • Wietschel, Martin

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) have the potential to reduce green house gas emissions from the transport sector. However, the limited electric range of EVs could impede their market introduction. Still some potential users are willing to pay more for EVs. The combined effect of these and other influencing factors as well as the resulting future market evolution are unclear. Here, we study the market evolution of EVs in Germany until 2020. Our results reveal a great deal of uncertainty in the market evolution of EVs due to external conditions and the users' willingness to pay. We find the future share of EVs in German passenger car stock to range from 0.4% to almost 3% by 2020. Energy prices have a large impact on EV market evolution as a 25% increase in fuel prices would double the number of EVs in stock by 2020 compared to a reference scenario. The high uncertainty of the market evolution implies that policies to foster market diffusion of EVs should be dynamically adaptable to react to changing framework conditions. We find a special depreciation allowance for commercial vehicles and a subsidy of 1,000 Euro as the most effective and efficient monetary policy options.

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  • Gnann, Till & Plötz, Patrick & Kühn, André & Wietschel, Martin, 2014. "Modelling market diffusion of electric vehicles with real world driving data: German market and policy options," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S12/2014, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s122014
    DOI: 10.24406/publica-fhg-296951
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    1. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
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    1. Gnann, Till & Stephens, Thomas S. & Lin, Zhenhong & Plötz, Patrick & Liu, Changzheng & Brokate, Jens, 2018. "What drives the market for plug-in electric vehicles? - A review of international PEV market diffusion models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 158-164.
    2. Globisch, Joachim & Plötz, Patrick & Dütschke, Elisabeth & Wietschel, Martin, 2019. "Consumer preferences for public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 54-63.
    3. Van, Tien Linh Cao & Barthelmes, Lukas & Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Kagerbauer, Martin, 2021. "Addressing the gaps in market diffusion modeling of electrical vehicles: A case study from Germany for the integration of environmental policy measures," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2021, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Xiong, Siqin & Yuan, Yi & Yao, Jia & Bai, Bo & Ma, Xiaoming, 2023. "Exploring consumer preferences for electric vehicles based on the random coefficient logit model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    5. Misconel, S. & Zimmermann, F. & Mikurda, J. & Möst, D. & Kunze, R. & Gnann, T. & Kühnbach, M. & Speth, D. & Pelka, S. & Yu, S., 2024. "Model coupling and comparison on optimal load shifting of battery electric vehicles and heat pumps focusing on generation adequacy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    6. Hu, Jia-Wei & Javaid, Aneeque & Creutzig, Felix, 2021. "Leverage points for accelerating adoption of shared electric cars: Perceived benefits and environmental impact of NEVs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    7. Xie, Fei & Lin, Zhenhong, 2017. "Market-driven automotive industry compliance with fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards: Analysis based on consumer choice," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 299-311.
    8. Huber, Julian & Dann, David & Weinhardt, Christof, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasts of time and energy flexibility in battery electric vehicle charging," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    9. Scheller, Fabian & Johanning, Simon & Bruckner, Thomas, 2018. "IRPsim: A techno-socio-economic energy system model vision for business strategy assessment at municipal level," Contributions of the Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management 02/2018, University of Leipzig, Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.
    10. Plötz, Patrick & Jakobsson, Niklas & Sprei, Frances, 2017. "On the distribution of individual daily driving distances," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 213-227.
    11. Gnann, T. & Speth, D. & Seddig, K. & Stich, M. & Schade, W. & Gómez Vilchez, J.J., 2022. "How to integrate real-world user behavior into models of the market diffusion of alternative fuels in passenger cars - An in-depth comparison of three models for Germany," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Jochem, Patrick & Babrowski, Sonja & Fichtner, Wolf, 2015. "Assessing CO2 emissions of electric vehicles in Germany in 2030," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 68-83.
    13. Ranjit R. Desai & Eric Hittinger & Eric Williams, 2022. "Interaction of Consumer Heterogeneity and Technological Progress in the US Electric Vehicle Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-25, June.
    14. Sykes, Maxwell & Axsen, Jonn, 2017. "No free ride to zero-emissions: Simulating a region's need to implement its own zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate to achieve 2050 GHG targets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 447-460.
    15. Romano Alberto Acri & Silvia Barone & Paolo Cambula & Valter Cecchini & Maria Carmen Falvo & Jacopo Lepore & Matteo Manganelli & Federico Santi, 2021. "Forecast of the Demand for Electric Mobility for Rome–Fiumicino International Airport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-19, August.
    16. Viri, Riku & Mäkinen, Johanna & Liimatainen, Heikki, 2021. "Modelling car fleet renewal in Finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 63-79.
    17. Scheller, Fabian & Johanning, Simon & Bruckner, Thomas, 2019. "A review of designing empirically grounded agent-based models of innovation diffusion: Development process, conceptual foundation and research agenda," Contributions of the Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management 01/2019, University of Leipzig, Institute for Infrastructure and Resources Management.
    18. Zhang, Cen & Schmöcker, Jan-Dirk & Kuwahara, Masahiro & Nakamura, Toshiyuki & Uno, Nobuhiro, 2020. "A diffusion model for estimating adoption patterns of a one-way carsharing system in its initial years," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 135-150.
    19. Gnann, Till & Speth, Daniel & Plötz, Patrick & Wietschel, Martin & Krail, Michael, 2022. "Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge: Rückblick und Ausblick bis 2030," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S05/2022, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    20. Ensslen, Axel & Gnann, Till & Jochem, Patrick & Plötz, Patrick & Dütschke, Elisabeth & Fichtner, Wolf, 2020. "Can product service systems support electric vehicle adoption?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 343-359.
    21. Plötz, Patrick & Schneider, Uta & Globisch, Joachim & Dütschke, Elisabeth, 2014. "Who will buy electric vehicles? Identifying early adopters in Germany," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 96-109.
    22. Plötz, Patrick & Gnann, Till & Jochem, Patrick & Yilmaz, Hasan Ümitcan & Kaschub, Thomas, 2019. "Impact of electric trucks powered by overhead lines on the European electricity system and CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-40.
    23. Bhat, Furqan A. & Verma, Ashish, 2024. "Electric two-wheeler adoption in India – A discrete choice analysis of motivators and barriers affecting the potential electric two-wheeler buyers," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 118-131.
    24. Schwab, Julia & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2022. "Electric Vehicle Cost in 2035: The impact of market penetration and charging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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