IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/esprep/57430.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An evidence of speculation in Indian commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Vijay Kumar Varadi

Abstract

Recent price surge in commodity markets has stipulated the intensity of various factors which lead the price volatility. There are multiple-factors namely, traditional supply and demand, excess global liquidity (i.e., monetary inflows in commodity markets), and financialization i.e., financial investors (portfolio investment and speculation) attitude. This paper is an attempt to investigate for the evidence and impact of speculation on volatility of commodity prices in Indian commodity markets. And, results exhibit that speculation has played decisive role in the commodity price bubble during the global crisis in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Vijay Kumar Varadi, 2012. "An evidence of speculation in Indian commodity markets," EconStor Preprints 57430, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:57430
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/57430/1/Paper%20on%20Speculative%20evidience.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baffes, John & Haniotis, Tassos, 2010. "Placing the 2006/08 commodity price boom into perspective," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5371, The World Bank.
    2. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2008. "Commodity Speculation and Commodity Investment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0820, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    4. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    5. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, April.
    6. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1977. "The Theory of Speculation under Alternative Regimes of Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 975-999, September.
    7. Paul Davidson, 2008. "Crude Oil Prices:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(4), pages 110-118.
    8. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    9. Jörg Mayer, 2009. "The Growing Interdependence Between Financial And Commodity Markets," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 195, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    10. Rolf Kappel & Reinhard Pfeiffer & Jutta Werner, 2010. "What Became of the Food Price Crisis in 2008?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 65(1), pages 21-47, March.
    11. L. Randall Wray, 2009. "Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_578, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Du, Xiaodong & Yu, Cindy L. & Hayes, Dermot J., 2011. "Speculation and volatility spillover in the crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: A Bayesian analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 497-503, May.
    13. Robles, Miguel & Torero, Maximo & von Braun, Joachim, 2009. "When speculation matters:," Issue briefs 57, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. L. Randall Wray, 2008. "The Commodities Market Bubble: Money Manager Capitalism and the Financialization of Commodities," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_96, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R. & Merrin, Robert P., 2009. "Devil or Angel? The Role of Speculation in the Recent Commodity Price Boom (and Bust)," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 377-391, August.
    17. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    18. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, January.
    19. Stevans, Lonnie & Sessions, David, 2008. "Speculation, Futures Prices, and the U.S. Real Price of Crude Oil," MPRA Paper 9456, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Jul 2008.
    20. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    21. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2010. "The Impact of Index and Swap Funds on Commodity Futures Markets: Preliminary Results," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 27, OECD Publishing.
    22. Yasunari Inamura & Tomonori Kimata & Takeshi Kimura & Takashi Muto, 2011. "Recent Surge in Global Commodity Prices-- Impact of financialization of commodities and globally accommodative monetary conditions --," Bank of Japan Review Series 11-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Bhabani Sankar Rout & Nupur Moni Das & K. Chandrasekhara Rao, 2021. "Functional Effectiveness of Commodity Futures Market: A Comparative Assessment of Agricultural and Metal Commodities," Paradigm, , vol. 25(1), pages 42-60, June.
    3. Caramugan, Karlo Martin & Bayacag, Purisima, 2016. "Price Bubble in Selected ASEAN Agricultural Exports: An Application of the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey Fuller," MPRA Paper 74807, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott H. Irwin & Dwight R. Sanders, 2011. "Index Funds, Financialization, and Commodity Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-31.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    4. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    5. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Mayer, Herbert & Rathgeber, Andreas & Wanner, Markus, 2017. "Financialization of metal markets: Does futures trading influence spot prices and volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 300-316.
    7. Troester, Bernhard & Staritz, Cornelia, 2013. "Fundamentals or financialisation of commodity markets: What determines recent wheat prices?," Working Papers 43, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    8. Bozic, Marin, 2011. "Three essays in commodity futures and options price performance," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 160678, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Staritz, Cornelia, 2012. "Financial markets and the commodity price boom: Causes and implications for developing countries," Working Papers 30, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
    10. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    11. Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
    12. Carlos J. García & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 645, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Shanker, Latha, 2017. "New indices of adequate and excess speculation and their relationship with volatility in the crude oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 18-35.
    14. Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Irwin, Scott H. & Garcia, Philip, 2013. "Dissecting Corn Price Movements with Directed Acyclic Graphs," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151279, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Ron Alquist & Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 35-54, July.
    17. Ederington, Louis H. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Hoelscher, Seth A. & Lee, Thomas K. & Linn, Scott C., 2019. "Characteristics of petroleum product prices: A survey," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Olagunju, Kehinde Oluseyi & Feng, Siyi & Patton, Myles, 2021. "Dynamic relationships among phosphate rock, fertilisers and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from a vector error correction model and Directed Acyclic Graphs," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin, 2010. "A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 25-32, January.
    20. Libo Yin & Qingyuan Yang & Zhi Su, 2017. "Predictability of structural co-movement in commodity prices: the role of technical indicators," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 795-812, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity Markets; Speculation; Price Volatility; Financialization; Investor’s behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:esprep:57430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zbwkide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.