IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00174466.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Goux

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENS LSH - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Charbel Cordahi

    (USEK - Université Saint-Esprit de Kaslik)

Abstract

We show that an American monetary shock wields an influence, though limited, over the Lebanese output in accordance with the literature advances. However, as we are waiting for a stronger transmission of U.S. short-term rates to Lebanese short-term rates, we notice that this transmission is weak in the first year. The result can be explained by the presence of pricing-to-market. After the end of the first year, we find the traditional result where the increase in the American interest rate is transmitted integrally to the Lebanese interest rate. We recognize this phenomenon as the dollarization effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Goux & Charbel Cordahi, 2007. "The international transmission of monetary shocks in a dollarized economy: The case of USA and Lebanon," Post-Print halshs-00174466, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00174466
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00174466
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-00174466/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009.
    2. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "Inversión de las corrientes de capital, tipo de cambio y dolarización [Capital Flow Reversals, the Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization]," MPRA Paper 13692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    5. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    6. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1031-1057, September.
    7. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-1125, December.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    9. Otani, Akira, 2002. "Pricing-to-Market (PTM) and the International Monetary Policy Transmission: The "New Open-Economy Macroeconomics" Approach," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(3), pages 1-34, October.
    10. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    11. Anderson, Richard G. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Rasche, Robert H., 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'A vector error-correction forecasting model of the U.S. economy'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 613-614, December.
    12. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
    13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    14. Mr. Johannes Mueller, 1994. "Dollarization in Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 1994/129, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Mr. Miguel A Savastano, 1996. "Dollarization in Latin America: Recent Evidence and Some Policy Issues," IMF Working Papers 1996/004, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    17. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    18. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    19. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    20. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    21. Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 518-544, September.
    22. Alan S. Blinder, 1994. "On Sticky Prices: Academic Theories Meet the Real World," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 117-154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    24. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "The Mirage of Floating Exchange Rates," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 10.
    25. Kim, Soyoung, 1999. "Do monetary policy shocks matter in the G-7 countries? Using common identifying assumptions about monetary policy across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 387-412, August.
    26. Oleh Havrylyshyn & Christian H Beddies, 2003. "Dollarisation in the Former Soviet Union: from Hysteria to Hysteresis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 329-357, September.
    27. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    28. Mr. Adam Bennett & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    30. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    31. Edwards, Sebastian, 2001. "Dollarization: Myths and realities," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 249-265, April.
    32. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    33. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    34. Salvatore, Dominick & Dean, James W. & Willett, Thomas D. (ed.), 2003. "The Dollarization Debate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195155365.
    35. Honohan, Patrick & Shi, Anging, 2001. "Deposit dollarization and the financial sector in emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2748, The World Bank.
    36. Kollmann, Robert, 2001. "Explaining international comovements of output and asset returns: The role of money and nominal rigidities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1547-1583, October.
    37. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates: Puzzling Evidence from the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 95-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    38. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Erratum to "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market": [Journal of International Economics 50 (2000) 214-244]," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-208, October.
    39. Dennis L. Hoffman & Robert H. Rasche, 1997. "STLS/US-VECM6.1: a vector error-correction forecasting model of the U. S. economy," Working Papers 1997-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    40. Ortiz, Guillermo, 1983. "Currency Substitution in Mexico: The Dollarization Problem," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(2), pages 174-185, May.
    41. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    42. Joannes Mongardini & Johannes Mueller, 2000. "Ratchet Effects in Currency Substitution: An Application to the Kyrgyz Republic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alper ASLAN, 2010. "The validity of PPP: evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for ASEAN countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1433-1443.
    2. Layal Mansour, 2014. "The Power of International Reserves: the impossible trinity becomes possible," Working Papers halshs-01054614, HAL.
    3. Kepa Astorkiza & Ikerne del Valle, 2013. "Changing the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) Decision-Making Framework: A Central Bank of Fishes?," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(3), pages 415-431, May.
    4. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "Monetary Determinants of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(1), pages 89-101, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    3. Landry, Anthony, 2009. "Expectations and exchange rate dynamics: A state-dependent pricing approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 60-71, June.
    4. Anthony Landry, 2007. "Pricing-to-market with state-dependent pricing," Working Papers 0706, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    5. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03606241, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Caroline Schmidt, 2006. "International transmission effects of monetary policy shocks: can asymmetric price setting explain the stylized facts?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 205-218.
    10. Anthony Landry, 2005. "The Mundell-Fleming-Dornbusch Model in a New Bottle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 455, Society for Computational Economics.
    11. Mahdi Barakchian, S., 2015. "Transmission of US monetary policy into the Canadian economy: A structural cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 11-26.
    12. Massimo Giuliodori, "undated". "The Empirical Relevance of a basic sticky-price intertemporal model," Working Papers 2001_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    13. Anthony Landry, 2006. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A State-Dependent Pricing Approach," 2006 Meeting Papers 119, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    15. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Noise trading and delayed exchange rate overshooting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 133-156, September.
    16. Bluedorn, John C. & Bowdler, Christopher, 2011. "The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 309-336, March.
    17. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    18. Cwik, Tobias & Müller, Gernot J. & Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 545-564, April.
    19. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
    20. Cooke, Dudley, 2010. "Consumption home bias and exchange rate behavior," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 415-425, March.
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-037 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff:savastano is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest rate; International transmission; law of one price; monetary shock; purchasing power parity;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00174466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.