Effect of the Suspension from the African Growth and Opportunity Act Programme on Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a non-reciprocal trade preference offered by the United States to Sub-Saharan African countries, is set to expire on 30 September 2025. The present article examines the effect of the AGOA suspension on poverty in suspended countries. The analysis covers an unbalanced sample of 43 SSA countries, of which 15 SSA countries at least once from the benefits of the AGOA (the treatment group), and 28 SSA countries eligible to the benefits of the programme, but that never suspended from those benefits (control group). The empirical findings indicate that the AGOA suspension has raised poverty in suspended countries, with countries that export non-resource products being the most adversely affected. In addition, the AGOA suspension results in a higher poverty rate in the long-term than in the short-term. Finally, the analysis has revealed that the poverty situation of suspended countries has worsened relatively to countries that never benefited from the programme. This shows that the poverty situation of the suspended countries has deteriorated after the AGOA suspension compared to what their situation would have been if they did not benefit from the programme. The analysis sheds light on the poverty increases consequences of the AGOA suspension, and also points to the adverse consequences of the uncertainty surrounding non-reciprocal trade preferences for beneficiary countries.