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Implikationen langfristiger Energiekostenunterschiede für energieintensive Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland

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  • Steitz, Janek
  • Kölschbach Ortego, Axel

Abstract

Im Auftrag des Dezernat Zukunft haben die IW Consult und Frontier Economics in einer neuen Studie (Bähr et al. 2023) untersucht, wie sich Energiekosten im In- und Ausland langfristig entwickeln werden und welche wirtschaftlichen Implikationen dies für die inländischen energieintensiven Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland grundsätzlich haben wird. Dieser Policy Brief fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse der Studie zusammen, ergänzt um politische Handlungsempfehlungen des Dezernat Zukunft (S. 18 ff.). Die Kernergebnisse der Studie sind: Erstens: Deutschland wird - anders als derzeit oft behauptet - auch nach 2030 substanzielle Energiekostennachteile gegenüber anderen Industriestandorten haben. Diese Kostennachteile haben zufolge, dass die energieintensive Grundstofferzeugung in Deutschland nur zu Mehrkosten möglich sein wird. Zweitens: Nachgelagerte Wirtschaftszweige werden empfindlich auf die Kostenaufschläge mit Erhöhung von Vorleistungsimporten und Auslandsverlagerung reagieren. Drittens: Ohne Gegenmaßnahmen und isoliert betrachtet droht der deutschen Wirtschaft so ein Wohlfahrtsverlust von 1,7 bis 4,5 Prozent über zehn bis 15 Jahre. 1,7 Millionen Arbeitsplätze sind bedroht - vor allem in weiterverarbeitenden Branchen. Ein Maßnahmenbündel kann den Effekt abfedern. Das Bündel sollte horizontale, produktivitätssteigernde Standortpolitik mit gezielten vertikalen Eingriffen verbinden, ohne dabei bestehende Industriestrukturen zu konservieren. Die Reduktion der Energiesystemkosten sollte oberste Priorität haben. Dabei spielt auch die Erhöhung energieintensiver Vorleistungsimporte eine zentrale Rolle spielen. Gleichzeitig muss eine "Sockelkapazität" an Grundstofferzeugung in Deutschland gesichert werden - dies erfordert gezielte staatliche Hilfen.

Suggested Citation

  • Steitz, Janek & Kölschbach Ortego, Axel, 2023. "Implikationen langfristiger Energiekostenunterschiede für energieintensive Industrien und den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland," Papers 277911, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:dzimps:277911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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